Latin America Economics Update What would an escalation of US sanctions mean for Venezuela? The decision by the US Treasury to sanction Venezuelan president Nicholas Maduro was on the more benign end of the spectrum of options reportedly under consideration and is unlikely to have much... 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update State sector reform continues to underwhelm There has been a fresh push recently on state sector reform but no sign that policymakers are willing to tackle the underlying reasons why state firms perform poorly. 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Jobs growth switches from soft to soaring After a soft patch at the beginning of this year, jobs growth has soared in Australia in recent months. What’s more, of the net new 154,000 jobs that have been created since March all of them have... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Transitional agreement increasingly likely The view on both sides of the channel seems to be that agreeing the terms of the UK’s withdrawal will take longer than initially hoped. As a result, a transitional deal allowing freedom of movement... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Election won’t solve Malaysia’s institutional problems There is growing speculation that Malaysia’s prime minister, Najib Razak, will take advantage of the recent strength of the economy by calling an early general election. The weak state of the... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What does Pakistan’s political crisis mean for the economy? The resignation of Pakistan’s prime minister, Nawaz Sharif following the decision by the country’s Supreme Court to disqualify him from office, has once again put the spotlight on the country’s highly... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Could Abenomics survive the departure of PM Abe? Abenomics appeared to run out of momentum well before a recent slump in Prime Minister Abe’s popularity put his political future in doubt. In particular, his departure would matter little for... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Major economies rebound, policy easing gains pace The latest data support our view that the recoveries in Sub-Saharan Africa’s big three economies will be stronger than most expect. Activity data in Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola all suggest that... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Regional inflation hits seven-year low Inflation has continued to fall across Latin America – our measure of regional inflation (excluding Argentina and Venezuela) dropped below 4% y/y for the first time since 2010 last month. This is due... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jul.) Small business confidence was little changed in July and still points to solid gains in industrial production. But even though firms continue to report severe staff shortages, the survey suggests that... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil and the rising populist threat It’s still too soon to say how next year’s presidential elections in Brazil will pan out, but it’s not impossible to see how voters might return an economic populist to the Planalto. If so, there are... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will US corporate credit spreads stay low? US corporate credit spreads surged three years or so ago after falling to the levels that they have approached again recently. Nonetheless, we doubt that history is about to repeat itself. 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Likely sticking points no surprise While the second round of negotiations made little substantive progress towards a final agreement, it did highlight the areas where there is the most work to do. Meanwhile, economic data suggested... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine peso has further to fall The Argentine peso has been the worst-performing EM currency over the past month, and we think it has further to fall. Our forecast is for it to weaken by another 10% against the dollar to 19/$ by end... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack BJP laying the groundwork for 2019 The result of India’s presidential election is due to be announced later today. It won’t have direct implications for the economy since the role of president is largely ceremonial. But the result... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Looking beyond Abe The popularity of the government has suffered severely recently and there is now a real chance that Mr Abe will be out of office before the next legislative elections. A change of prime minister could... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
