UK Economics Update Unfreezing talks, but kicking the can down the road Prime Minister Theresa May’s much-hyped Florence speech has probably inched the UK closer to having made “sufficient progress” on the withdrawal phase of the negotiations. However, there are still... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What will Germany’s election mean for the economy? The German election taking place on Sunday is not expected to have a significant impact on the economy. But the composition of the next coalition – which is likely to be either another grand coalition... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly When will R&D spending start to recover? Spending on research and development has been sluggish recently, but the recent rebound in corporate profits suggests it will start to recover before long. This would provide a boost to domestic... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Core price pressures are building Some have argued that the recent jump in inflation is all about a surge in volatile food prices, with the implication that it shouldn’t have a significant bearing on monetary policy. But this ignores... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German investment set for strong growth Despite little prospect of a pick-up in public investment in Germany following Sunday’s federal election, conditions are ripe for sharp rises in both general business investment and construction... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Election may not dent the kiwi dollar much The outcome of the general election on Saturday may well alter the paths that New Zealand’s economy and the kiwi dollar tread over the next few years. But we doubt that any initial reaction would be... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Snap elections could leave PM Abe with last laugh With the opposition in disarray and support for the ruling coalition rebounding, the government may well retain its two-thirds majority in the Lower House if it called a snap election. The chances of... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: All eyes on PM’s Florence speech The fourth round of negotiations have been delayed by a week until after Theresa May’s forthcoming speech in Florence. Both negotiating teams will be hoping that the Prime Minister endorses a... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro-zone moving closer to fiscal union? European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker this week gave his support to the creation of a European Monetary Fund and a euro-zone “budget line”. Eventually, these would result in slightly... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Taper without the tantrum While the Bank of Japan didn’t reduce the pace of its bond purchases any further in August, they are much lower now than they were when Yield Curve Control was launched. Nonetheless, bond yields have... 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Huge costs make Catalan independence unlikely A unilateral declaration of independence after October’s referendum could severely destabilise the economies of Catalonia and Spain. But given this, and the political and legal barriers to secession... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Which states are set to shine? There are vast differences in the economic prospects of India’s 36 states and union territories. The three richest large states – Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat – should continue to drive growth... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Three things to watch in the Standing Committee reshuffle President Xi is widely expected to consolidate his power over the Party and over policy at the Party Congress next month. Politics is extremely opaque at elite levels in China and we won’t have any... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Bank lending rates remain very low and corporate profits have climbed to record highs. Companies are in rude financial health as a result and the number of bankruptcies has dropped to levels not seen... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Not out of the woods yet Most commentators hailed the Kenyan Supreme Court’s decision to annul the result of last month’s presidential election as a key win for the country’s democracy. This is, as yet, premature. The real... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jul.) The rebound in machinery orders in July was overdue, but the figures have become increasingly less reliable as an indicator of capital spending. The bigger picture is that investment should continue... 11th September 2017 · 1 min read
