China Economics Update Xi is prioritising politics over market opening The Party Congress kicked off today with the Report delivered by Xi Jinping. His ability to emphasise his contributions to Communist Party doctrine over those his predecessors hints at a successful... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A look ahead to the Czech elections The centre-right ANO is likely to emerge as the single largest party in Friday’s parliamentary election in the Czech Republic, which may open the door to looser fiscal policy. That said, there are... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deal, no deal or no Brexit? The fifth round of Brexit negotiations passed without much progress being made towards a withdrawal agreement, while the Government appears to have stepped up its plans somewhat for coping with a “no... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Risk of violent crisis escalating Kenya’s post-election legal drama is still rapidly developing. But the latest developments all suggest that the country’s chance of avoiding a violent (and economically painful) crisis is dwindling. 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Positive verdict on Abenomics ahead of snap elections The economy is providing a favourable backdrop to Prime Minister Abe’s efforts to be re-elected on 22nd October. Firms are the most upbeat in a generation following a jump in their profits. Job growth... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Calculating the potential fiscal cost of loan waivers Announcements of debt write-offs for farmers in a number of Indian states in recent months have grabbed the headlines. In this Update, we attempt to calculate the fiscal cost of the announced waivers... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GST gets political A number of recent tweaks to the new Goods and Services Tax (GST) appear to be attempts to shore up support for the BJP ahead of the upcoming state in election in Gujarat rather than attempts to... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus The Party Congress - a Primer The upcoming Party Congress will deliver a major reshuffle of China’s leadership and determine President Xi Jinping’s ability to implement his policy priorities over the next five years. In this... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Winners & losers in the low growth era All EMs have entered a period of permanently weaker growth but it remains the case that growth rates over the next decade or so will differ significantly between countries. In this Focus we identify... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Catalan situation could still escalate further While Catalonia’s president avoided inflaming tensions with Madrid further in his speech yesterday, as long as the situation drags on there is likely to be some hit to business sentiment. Ultimately... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Aug.) Machinery orders rose further in August and suggest that the recovery in investment spending continued last quarter. With firms facing rising capacity shortages, the outlook for capital expenditure... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Would a stronger Xi be good for the economy? Reform implementation is likely to accelerate after the Party Congress, particularly if President Xi emerges in a stronger position. But given Xi’s reluctance to relinquish state control over key... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Election unlikely to revive Abenomics Victory for Prime Minister Abe in this month’s election would keep Japan on the same track it has been on since 2012, pursuing fiscal tightening, loose monetary policy and tentative structural reform... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Catalan political crisis still far from an economic one The Catalan Government could achieve independence without Spain’s consent if a critical mass of people and firms were on board. This would be negative for the rest of Spain. Spain’s government’s debt... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Renewed leadership bid could hamper negotiations The prospect of a renewed Conservative Party leadership bid could have a de-stabilising effect on negotiations next week and, if it does happen, could have a material impact on the sort of Brexit that... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What would Yurinomics mean for Japan? Yuriko Koike’s Party of Hope has pledged to rely less on loose fiscal and monetary policy if it wins the upcoming election. But in practice its proposals, which include delaying the sales tax hike... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read