Commodities Update Spike in oil risk premium masks fundamental frailties Until the geopolitical situation in the Middle East deescalates, oil prices will clearly remain at risk of spiking higher. But against a backdrop of faltering demand and greater supply in the wider... 2nd October 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico and what to expect from President Sheinbaum We held a Drop-In yesterday to discuss what investors should expect as Claudia Sheinbaum takes over the presidency in Mexico. A recording of the event can be found here. This Update answers some of... 2nd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Event China Drop-In: Will this stimulus be enough to revive the economy? 1727856000 Economists from our China and Markets teams held a special briefing to assess the recent flurry of stimulus announcements from Beijing.
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Romania’s fiscal risks, Russian economy under strain Romania’s fiscal watchdog warned this week that the country’s budget deficit could come in a lot wider than the government originally planned this year at 8.0% of GDP, and we think that investors may... 27th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico in Trump’s firing line, Colombia’s budget drama Donald Trump's threats this week to impose tariffs on imports of cars and agricultural equipment from Mexico highlight how big a risk his return to the White House would pose to Mexico’s free trade... 27th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Ishiba victory will be greeted with relief by BoJ While Sanae Takaichi's defeat in this week's LDP leadership elections means that Japan won't have its first female Prime Minister after all, Shigeru Ishiba's victory will almost certainly be welcome... 27th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil policy, Egypt’s debt return, Israel-Lebanon Saudi Arabia is reportedly set to change tack and raise oil output to recapture lost market share, which would provide a mechanical lift to GDP and the Kingdom is in a strong position to weather any... 26th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Update Incoming PM unlikely to veto further rate hikes The government tried to prevent the Bank of Japan from hiking interest rates in 2000 but that attempt was unsuccessful and the government has respected the Bank’s independence ever since. Renewed... 24th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Event LatAm Drop-In: Mexico’s economy and markets as Sheinbaum takes charge 1727791200 Our economists think Mexico will be Latin America’s worst-performing economy in the coming years. Will its new president be able to change the narrative?
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi Vision 2030: where it is going right (and wrong) Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme has resulted in major societal and cultural changes, but many of the economic reforms are currently not on track to hit their targets. That is not to say... 23rd September 2024 · 29 mins read
Event Drop-in: Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 – Where it’s going right (and wrong) 1728550800 Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme is passed its halfway point with clear evidence of major societal and cultural changes.
Europe Economics Weekly ECB-Fed revisited, France’s new government We do not think the Fed’s 50bp rate cut or the latest euro-zone HICP inflation breakdown will put the ECB off its plans for gradual policy easing. Meanwhile, France looks close to having a new... 20th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Sri Lanka election risks, new Indonesia rate forecast Sri Lanka has enjoyed a steady, if unspectacular recovery from the 2022 debt default crisis. However, this progress could be put at risk depending on the results of this weekend’s presidential... 20th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Will Japan have its first female prime minister? Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi is seen as the most suitable candidate for Prime Minister, though the race remains wide open. While she has opposed any policy tightening by the Bank of Japan... 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs: key client questions answered We recently held a series of EM-focused client meetings in Switzerland and Germany which covered a wide range of topics, including the impact of global fracturing, AI and the green transition on... 16th September 2024 · 5 mins read
