Africa Economics Update Kenya: Boycotted election threatens lasting crisis The results of yesterday’s re-run presidential election in Kenya are not in doubt. But signs suggest the country’s political crisis – which has already weighed on the economy and local markets – will... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update One chart to watch for Argentine investors The performance of President Macri’s Cambiemos coalition in last weekend’s legislative elections has given a boost to reform hopes, but we can’t escape the feeling that investors are glossing over the... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Initial thoughts on the recapitalisation package A large-scale recapitalisation plan announced yesterday by the government is the most significant measure yet to deal with India’s banking sector malaise. That said, the package will come at a fiscal... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Xi tightens his grip, leaves succession plans unclear As expected, Xi was able to stack China’s top leadership group with close allies. Furthermore, he left the door open to staying on beyond 2022 by not anointing a successor. Unfortunately, there are... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech coalition negotiations likely to be a long drag Events over the past 24 hours have confirmed our view that, while the centre-right ANO party would prevail in the country’s elections, the challenging part will be forming a coalition government... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tail risks to watch for in EMs Our relatively sanguine view on the outlook for EMs over the next 12-18 months has prompted several clients to ask about risks to our forecasts. While risks – both positive and negative – are by their... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Xi enshrined in constitution, signalling his dominance Wang Qishan was not among the members of the new central committee announced today, ending speculation that retirement norms would be broken so that he could keep his position, possibly as a precursor... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Fiscal deficit target under pressure The rapid expansion of the central government’s deficit in the early stages of the fiscal year is a regular occurrence, as revenues tend to get ramped up in latter months. Nevertheless, there are... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) Even though the manufacturing PMI weakened a touch this month, it still points to robust gains in industrial output. However, the survey suggests that price pressures will not strengthen any further... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update “Sufficient progress” by December? It was little surprise that the leaders of the EU27 this week decided that “sufficient progress” on the withdrawal issues has not yet been achieved. But there were encouraging signs that this point... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Race to be next Fed Chair enters closing stages The markets are right to remain relatively sanguine over the upcoming decision on who will be the next Fed Chair, since the Fed’s low rate regime will probably continue with President Donald Trump... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Markets mispricing interest rate moves Market expectations towards South African interest rates have shifted markedly in recent weeks. While a rate cut next month is no-longer likely, we think that the markets have moved too far, and are... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia’s Jokowi failing to deliver on reform Joko Widodo (commonly known as Jokowi) came to power three years ago promising to reinvigorate the struggling economy and raise growth to 7%. Despite some encouraging progress at the start of his... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How worried should we be about corporate scandals? Recent scandals underline that Japan’s corporate governance practices are still poor. Investors often pay a heavy price as shown by the bankruptcy of Takata and the slump in Kobe Steel’s stock prices... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Economy may slow sooner under new government We are not yet changing our forecasts for GDP growth, inflation, interest rates or the dollar due to the news that a Labour-NZ First-Greens coalition led by Jacinda Ardern will form the next... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q3) & Activity (Sep.) Both the official figures and our own China Activity Proxy suggest that growth held up well last quarter, and so did the monthly activity data in September. However, a less supportive fiscal policy... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
