UK Economics Weekly Is the gloom on investment justified? A slowdown in investment growth is one of the main factors underpinning the consensus expectation for economic growth to slow in 2018. That comes despite the fact that ordinary drivers of investment... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Household Spending, Consumer Prices (Oct.) & Capital Spending (Q3) Today’s household spending data suggest that private consumption remained sluggish this quarter. Meanwhile, there are still few signs that the tight labour market is boosting price pressures. 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is Brexit uncertainty about to lift? Expectations that the growth of the UK economy will slow further in 2018 appear to assume that Brexitrelated uncertainty will have a more damaging impact next year. But there is a growing chance that... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update More needed to develop corporate bond market The development of a corporate bond market in India could reduce local firms’ heavy reliance on bank loans to obtain funding and improve the pricing of risk, which would have knock-on benefits for the... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) Even though industrial production disappointed in October, optimistic forecasts for the remainder of Q4 suggest that activity accelerated towards the end of the year. 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What would a “hard border” mean for Ireland? A so-called “hard border” between Ireland and the UK could hit the Irish economy pretty hard. But it would also present some opportunities, for example from UK financial firms relocating to Dublin. 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update N. Ireland border issue unresolved as time runs short Press reports suggest that the UK will increase its financial offer in a bid to move talks on to phase two at the December EU Council meeting. But the Irish border issue remains unresolved with just... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The manufacturing PMI climbed to a fresh high in November and suggests that the expansion accelerated in the final quarter of the year. What’s more, the survey shows that price pressures continue to... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update GDP targets here to stay Official talk about prioritising the “quality” of economic growth over speed has sparked speculation that the government may stop setting GDP targets. Unfortunately we think they are here to stay. 22nd November 2017 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Bank recapitalisation pushes equities to fresh highs The surge in Indian equities since the start of the year has continued over the past month, with the benchmark Sensex stock index hitting an all-time high in early November. The latest leg up has been... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German political crisis to have modest economic effects We doubt that the German political crisis will seriously damage business or consumer confidence. And given the similarities between the major parties’ economic policies, the ultimate form of the... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Little evidence of progress While the Government is yet to be defeated on the European Union Withdrawal Bill, there was little sign of the negotiations approaching “sufficient progress” this week. Given only two weeks remain for... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the labour market succumbing to Brexit uncertainty? The strength of the labour market has been a key source of comfort since the Brexit vote. But this week’s labour market figures – which revealed a 14,000 fall in employment in the three months to... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Prospects for world trade quite good, despite Trump Fears that Donald Trump’s election sounded the death knell for globalisation have so far proven wide of the mark. Admittedly, there are still some threats to the outlook, and there is little chance of... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Will the Nikkei continue to outperform? The Nikkei is near its highest in 25 years, buoyed by a 200% rise in net profits since PM Abe returned to power five years ago. Looking ahead, we expect the yen to weaken to 120 by the end of next... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Brexit: so far, so good? So far, Brexit has not had the huge adverse effects on the UK which many anticipated, and it has not caused any political upsets in the rest of Europe. It looks like there will be no major changes in... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
