US Economics Weekly Political risks back on the menu Congress may still avoid a partial government shutdown this weekend if another short-term continuing resolution squeaks through a Senate vote. That will keep the lights on for another month, but a... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update A primer on Federal government shutdowns It is still possible that Congress will reach a late deal to avoid a partial government shutdown beginning this weekend, but the chances of agreement seem to be slipping away. 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Price pressures strengthening again Inflation climbed to a fresh high in November and mounting capacity shortages suggest that price pressures will strengthen further. However, most of the recent increase has been driven by higher... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Nov.) Machinery orders were the highest in almost a decade in November which suggests that the expansion in business investment continued last quarter. 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Majority don’t support a second referendum The possibility of a second referendum was again raised this week, but the chances of another vote happening appear slim. Meanwhile, we still expect a transitional deal to be agreed by March. But the... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Economy on track for solid Q4 The recent spate of positive economic news has prompted some to raise their forecasts for Q4 quarterly growth to as much as 0.6%, double the average seen in 2017 so far. We have our doubts over... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Businesses shrugging off NAFTA uncertainty The improvement in business sentiment in the fourth quarter of last year, most notably the marked rebound in investment and hiring intentions, suggest that the increased uncertainty around NAFTA isn’t... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would Italian politicians really pull Italy out of the euro? Italy’s general election in March looks likely to produce a fragmented government with eurosceptic tendencies. We don’t think that it will pull Italy out of the euro-zone, but it may cause yields to... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus How much longer can the labour force grow? Perhaps the most remarkable achievement of Abenomics has been the continued increase in employment despite the contraction in the working age population. It is possible that Japan will be able to... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s strength not yet a major concern The main news for the euro-zone economy at the year’s outset has been the further appreciation of the euro. While this might seem like a major headwind to the economy’s upturn, we remain optimistic... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly A guide to elections in 2018 In this first Weekly of 2018, we take our usual look at the important elections that are set to take place in Asia over the coming year, assessing the implications for policymaking and economic growth... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy gathered a little momentum in Q4 The latest survey evidence suggests that the economy ended 2017 on a reasonable footing. Indeed, despite a fall-back in both the manufacturing and construction PMI surveys in December, the all-sector... 4th January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of the protests in Iran If the recent protests in Iran rumble on or even spread, the resulting disruptions to activity are likely to weigh on the country’s economy but the fallout for the rest of the MENA economies, as well... 2nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What does the Catalan election mean for the economy? The Catalan election result seems unlikely to prompt a major push for independence any time soon, so we doubt that it will have a material economic impact. As a result, the Spanish economy looks set... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update ANC: Ramaphosa rand rally reverses After rallying yesterday ahead of the election of Cyril Ramaphosa as head of the ANC, the rand fell back this morning as investors appreciated the depth of divisions within the ruling party. The... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Kuczynski impeachment threat rumbles Peru’s markets The vote due later this week by Peru’s congress on whether to impeach President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski seems likely to pass. If removed, Vice President Martin Vizcarra would take over and, while a... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
