India Economics Update Economy becoming increasingly formalised A key theme running through the government’s latest Economic Survey is the growing numbers of workers and firms being brought into the formal economy, and so subject to taxation and closer regulatory... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How would China fight a trade war? If the long-running skirmishes between the US and China were to escalate into a trade war, China would try to occupy the moral high ground by portraying itself as a defender of free trade. At the time... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will Brexit uncertainty finally bite in 2018? A key reason why most forecasters were too gloomy about the UK economy last year was that Brexit-related uncertainty was much less damaging than they had expected. Judging by the gloominess of... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are bond markets too sanguine about Italy? Investors appear to be calm ahead of Italy’s forthcoming election, and we think that they are right not to panic. That said, the next government is likely to be more lax with fiscal policy, so we... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Transition deal negotiations about to kick off The EU will publish its directives for negotiating a transitional arrangement on Monday, signalling the start of the next phase of negotiations. The UK Government seems prepared to accept the EU’s... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Would Japan benefit from higher interest rates? Some commentators have been arguing that the Bank of Japan should be raising interest rates now to support household incomes. However, it isn’t clear whether this would boost household spending, while... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade thriving after Trump’s first year It will surely come as no surprise if President Donald Trump delivers another protectionist speech at Davos tomorrow. But his actions may continue to fall a long way short of his rhetoric. In any case... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angola: Prepare for turbulence Since his election late last year, President João Lourenço has embarked on a surprisingly bold programme of economic reforms. In this Watch we argue that President Lourenço’s reform plans will help to... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar’s economy weathering diplomatic crisis The latest data from Qatar reinforce the picture that the economy has weathered the diplomatic crisis with regional powers. That said, hopes for a resolution to the crisis have been dashed by events... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The manufacturing PMI climbed to a four-year high in January and suggests that the economic expansion remained vigorous at the start of this year. 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update TPP deal overshadowed by NAFTA uncertainty The news that Canada has reached a deal on a new free trade agreement with the remaining ten TPP countries is no game changer since, even in the long term, the boost to Canadian GDP will be a trivial... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What to make of Italy’s centre-right policy programme Italy’s coalition of centre-right parties has proposed a raft of sweeping policies that would cause a blow-out in the budget deficit and possibly a significant shrinking of the workforce. But in... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Is the Philippines overheating? Rapid economic growth, surging imports and strong credit growth have fuelled fears that the Philippines is overheating and that the central bank will soon be forced to hike interest rates to bring the... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A primer on Federal government shutdowns It is still possible that Congress will reach a late deal to avoid a partial government shutdown beginning this weekend, but the chances of agreement seem to be slipping away. 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Does optimism about Brexit explain the pound’s rise? With the rise in the pound to its highest level against the US dollar since the eve of the EU referendum not appearing to be justified by relative interest rate expectations, some have argued that it... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly How ambitious is the grand coalition’s plan for Germany? The fiscal proposals agreed by Angela Merkel and Martin Schulz as part of their plan to renew Germany’s grand coalition amount to a headline-grabbing 1.5% of annual German GDP and include abolishing... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
