Asia Economic Outlook Trade war fears mount The growing threat of a US-China trade war is the key risk to the outlook. The tariff measures announced so far don’t amount to much, but any escalation in trade tensions that leads to a significant... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China raises the stakes of US trade action China’s rapid and aggressive response to the proposed US tariffs has raised the stakes for both sides. But its move to publish a list of counter-tariffs is primarily intended as a deterrent and we... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Does AMLO’s energy self-sufficiency plan make sense? Mexican presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (AMLO’s) goal to stop importing refined oil within three years might be a vote winner, but the large investment into domestic refining... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How will Germany fare under its new Government? The new German Government plans a fiscal boost equivalent to around 0.4% of GDP per year during its term. Increased spending on child benefits, pensions and refugee integration will support consumer... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q1) Today’s Tankan survey suggests that growth slowed last quarter. Nonetheless, staff shortages have continued to intensify and price pressures are strengthening. 2nd April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Ind. Prod. (Feb.) & Tokyo CPI (Mar.) The rebound in industrial production in February wasn’t strong enough to prevent a slump in output last quarter and we reiterate our forecast that GDP shrank in Q1. Meanwhile, the labour market... 30th March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: what to watch for as al-Sisi’s second term begins A victory for Egypt’s President al-Sisi in this week’s presidential election was never in doubt and attention will now shift to any changes to key policymaking positions. Mr. al-Sisi begins his second... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Attack on US soybean farmers would hurt China too China’s low-key response to last week’s tariff announcement by President Trump reflects in part a desire not to exacerbate tensions further. But Chinese officials will also be aware that, while they... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Prospects for the rural economy are bright After taking a significant hit in the aftermath of demonetisation in late 2016, India’s rural economy has regained momentum in recent months. Future prospects for the rural economy look bright, in... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Regional growth stays strong in Q1 The latest activity figures suggest that Emerging Europe’s strong economic performance continued in the early months of this year. Russia’s recovery has resumed following a slowdown in the second half... 26th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a Five Star-League alliance really be that bad? The fundamental differences between Italy’s Five Star Movement and League suggest that even if the parties agreed to form a government, they would not agree to implement either party’s more extreme... 26th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Impact of KORUS changes is small Korea looks to have emerged from the Korea-US free trade agreement (KORUS) re-negotiations unscathed, but rising trade tensions between the US and China remain a threat to its export sector. 26th March 2018 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: Fidesz to face tougher economic challenges in third term The ruling Fidesz-KDNP coalition looks set to win another majority at the forthcoming Hungarian legislative elections, but after enjoying a period of strong GDP growth and low inflation in its current... 26th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Curtain raised on future relationship negotiations As expected, on Friday the EU Council endorsed a transition period and the opening up of a new strand of negotiations on the future relationship. But unless the UK can come up with a solution to the... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Curtain raised on future relationship negotiations As expected, on Friday the EU Council endorsed a transition period and the opening up of a new strand of negotiations on the future relationship. But unless the UK can come up with a solution to the... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What does the Brexit transition deal mean for the EU? A key hurdle in securing a relatively smooth UK exit from the EU has been passed. The Brexit transition deal preserves the current economic relationship between the UK and the EU for 21 months after... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
