UK Economics Focus Should we fear a Labour government? Forget Brexit – the biggest thing to happen to the UK economy over the next couple of years could be the advent of a Labour government, and a particularly left-wing one at that. On the plus side, this... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch – AMLO fears recede Left-wing populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) appears to have made headway in allaying investors’ fears of a dramatic shift in policy if he wins Mexico’s presidential election in July. But... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SA: Minimum wage shows difficulty of economic reform South African policymakers are being forced to delay the introduction of a long-planned national minimum wage bill. Overall, we think that the bill is probably a positive step for the country. The... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Privatisation plans facing turbulence The government has set an ambitious privatisation target for FY18/19, emboldened by exceeding target last year. But meeting this year’s target is dependent on a smooth sale of a large stake in Air... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Election fallout likely to be greatest in Brazil, not Mexico There are still plenty of twists and turns that have yet to play out ahead of elections in Mexico and Brazil later this year. But developments over the past month mean we are becoming less concerned... 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Economic recovery will peak this year We expect that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to accelerate in 2018. This recovery will be driven largely by South Africa and Nigeria, where growth is set to pick up by more than... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Putting China’s surplus into perspective China’s bilateral trade surplus with the US and concerns about unfair trade practices are likely to keep US-China trade tensions boiling for a long time. But China’s overall current account surplus is... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Geopolitical fears rise, higher oil price offers some relief Mounting tensions surrounding the conflicts in Syria and Yemen have rattled financial markets in the MENA region, but the associated rally in oil prices should limit the economic fallout for the Gulf... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Tight labour market finally boosting pay Revised data show that regular earnings expanded at the fastest pace in two decades at the start of this year, underlining that the tight labour market is finally generating stronger cost pressures... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Has Xi done enough to placate Trump? In an attempt to de-escalate trade tensions, Xi has pledged to speed up efforts to reduce trade and investment barriers, boost competition and bolster intellectual property protections. This could... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s sanction sell-off and the economic impact The US sanctions imposed on Russia last Friday have caused turmoil in Russia’s markets today and financial conditions have tightened as a result. But at this stage it doesn’t look like there will be a... 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: Fidesz’s third term starts as economic cycle turns Fidesz-KDNP’s sweeping victory in Sunday’s parliamentary election in Hungary has been welcomed by local financial markets, but the late stage of the economic cycle means the government’s next term is... 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Election likely to entrench Malaysia’s problems Against the backdrop of a strong economy and with gerrymandering stacking the odds firmly in his favour, Prime Minister Najib Razak is highly likely to win an election which will now take place by May... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Business investment will continue to impress The early indications point to a fall in capital spending in Q1. However, mounting capacity and staff shortages suggest that spending on machinery and equipment will continue to grow faster than... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rising trade tensions increase upside risks to inflation We think consumer price inflation will have risen further last month to a fresh multi-year high, boosted by a rise in food price inflation. This probably marks the peak for inflation this year, though... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rally in Brazilian markets after Lula ruling to be limited The ruling by Brazil’s Supreme Court to imprison left-wing populist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) all but ends his bid for the presidency and throws the election race wide open. While markets are... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
