Europe Economics Update M5S/League proposals highlight risks to Italian bonds A leaked draft policy document shows that there is still anti-euro sentiment bubbling under the surface in the two parties most likely to form the next Italian government. What’s more, the parties... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update BJP election surge in Karnataka boosts reform prospects A strong showing in the Karnataka state election suggests that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP retains significant goodwill among the electorate. Mr Modi’s record to date suggests that he will continue to... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus The coming slowdown in China China has had a stellar run during the past few decades, achieving sustained rates of growth only even previously seen in a handful of emerging economies. Most major forecasters expect this... 14th May 2018 · 24 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices jump on US sanctions Donald Trump’s announcement that he will pull the US out of the nuclear agreement with Tehran and re-impose sanctions on Iran’s crude exports caused oil prices to jump this week. Meanwhile, China’s... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea: A one-year progress report on President Moon The highlight of Moon Jae-in’s first year as president has been the improvement in relations with North Korea. On the economic front, however, Moon has largely steered clear of the kind of... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: What next for monetary policy post-election While Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) left interest rates unchanged at today’s scheduled monetary policy meeting, the outlook for monetary policy has been thrown into considerable uncertainty following... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we worry about a M5S-League alliance? The fundamental differences between Italy’s Five Star Movement and League suggest that even if they agree to form a government together, they will not implement either party’s more extreme and costly... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina and the IMF: what happens next? The announcement yesterday that Argentina will seek an IMF deal has brought some relief to the peso, but it’s far from guaranteed that an agreement will be reached. More generally, talk of an IMF deal... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update What to make of the US sanctions on Iran The re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran is unlikely to have a major impact on global oil supply. However, geopolitical tensions have intensified and if Iran decides to pull out of the nuclear deal... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Trump and Iran’s nuclear deal: assessing the impact President Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the nuclear deal with Iran is likely to prompt a fresh downturn in Iran’s economy but, as things stand, the economic impact on the rest of the MENA... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Revisiting the fiscal cost of loan waivers The trend of political parties in India promising loans waivers to farmers ahead of state elections seems increasingly well entrenched. As a result, the fiscal costs are continuing to mount. We... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: Interest rates to rise as inflation concerns mount A further rise in inflation in April and more hawkish comments from policymakers suggest the central bank of the Philippines (BSP) is likely to raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting on Thursday... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Karnataka election a key bellwether for PM Modi In India’s decentralised political system, state elections such as the upcoming vote in Karnataka can have a direct bearing on economic policy. Arguably more significant though, a convincing... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Slowdown in bank lending no cause for concern The continued slowdown in bank lending seems to vindicate the Bank of Japan’s concerns that low policy rates are undermining financial intermediation. But broader measures of credit availability... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Ageing unlikely to lower productivity growth any further Population ageing explains little of the recent slowdown in productivity growth. And with the pace of greying not picking up any further, we expect productivity growth to rebound to 1% per annum over... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Nafta 2.0: what’s on the table? Following intensive talks last month, a preliminary new Nafta deal appears to be within reach. While it could still struggle to pass through legislatures in each country, the deal that looks to be on... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
