Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: what to watch for after the Erdogan-AKP victory Victories for President Erdogan and his AKP-led alliance in Turkey’s elections have been welcomed by financial markets, but history suggests that this rally will be short-lived, particularly if Mr... 25th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s hawkish shift, Turkey goes to the polls The more hawkish communications from Hungary’s MPC this week support our long-held view that ultra-loose monetary policy will be reined in this year. The hawkish shift caused market expectations for... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s elections: what’s at stake? This weekend’s elections in Turkey, which will mark a shift to a presidential political system, have put markets on edge amid fears of a further tilt towards unorthodox policy under a (strengthened)... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: will an MSCI upgrade drive the Tadawul higher? MSCI’s upcoming decision on whether to include Saudi Arabia in its benchmark emerging market equity indices has been billed as a game changer for the Kingdom’s stock market, but past experience... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Duque victory, but tax cuts could be delayed The victory for business-friendly candidate Iván Duque in Colombia’s presidential election looks largely priced in and should have a limited impact on local markets in the coming days. Investors will... 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand: Demographics and politics to drag on prospects Thailand’s working age population is forecast to start shrinking from next year, presenting a headwind to the country’s economic prospects. With productivity growth set to remain weak, economic growth... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack UAE the latest to loosen fiscal policy The past month has brought further signs that governments across the Gulf are responding to higher oil prices by ramping up spending. Both Abu Dhabi and Dubai, the two largest emirates that make up... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Russia’s demographic squeeze (finally) being tackled? The announcement that Russia’s Cabinet plans to raise the retirement age is a step in the right direction. While there are question marks about whether it will be implemented in full, it could stop... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update NAFTA feud escalates The markets have dismissed the G7 trade spat between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as much ado about nothing, which is understandable given the former’s infamously bellicose... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack 2% inflation target remains elusive Headline inflation has been falling recently as the impact of the short-lived spike in food prices over the winter has reversed. Energy inflation has continued to slow as utility bills are rising less... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Could North Korea be the next Vietnam? Tomorrow’s historic summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un in Singapore has raised the (distant) prospect of international sanctions against North Korea being lifted, a move that one day could... 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Irish border issue looks set to tie Government’s hands The EU has shunned the Government’s backstop proposal for the whole of the UK to remain in the EU’s customs territory at the end of the transition period. It seems to us that this forces the... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly G7 summit to highlight divisions on trade America’s isolation on trade policy, which will be on full show at this weekend’s G7 summit in Canada, raises the (admittedly still small) risks of a worst-case scenario in which the US tears up NAFTA... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: IMF deal imposes ambitious fiscal targets Confirmation that Argentina has reached an agreement with the IMF over a financing package will help to restore investor confidence and provide a much-needed anchor for the country’s necessary... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Pick-up in fertility too little, too late The slump in the share of young women that are married combined with the delay when women have their first child suggest that the fertility rate may at best rise from the current 1.4 to around 1.5... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How will the Trump-Kim summit impact South Korea? Next week’s summit between Donald Trump and North Korean leader, Kim Jung Un, is a big deal politically, but even if a major breakthrough is announced, the impact on South Korea’s financial markets... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
