Africa Economics Update South Africa: The Ramaphosa slump After contracting in Q1, the latest figures suggest that South Africa’s economy remained very weak in Q2. As a result, we’ve cut our 2018 GDP estimate from 2.0% y/y to a below-consensus 1.3%. 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US-China tariffs may shift import demand to other EMs The tariffs imposed by China and the US on $34bn of each other’s imports – that will come into force on Friday – are likely to have a small, negative impact on most of the emerging world. But some EMs... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: what to watch after Amlo’s resounding victory The conciliatory tone of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (Amlo’s) speeches following his convincing presidential election victory has been relatively well-received by the markets. But it’s worth... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB plays down rate hikes, Mexico goes to the polls A victory for left-wing populist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (Amlo) in Mexico’s presidential vote this weekend looks priced in. The market reaction is likely to take its cue from the performance of... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss-EU talks at risk, Riksbank to signal Q4 rate rise The Swiss Government this week made no progress towards reaching a deal with Brussels that would see Switzerland retain its unrestricted access to the Single Market. With the anti-immigrant SVP party... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Politics comes to the fore Rising political risk has dominated the headlines in Latin America this month. A recent truck drivers’ strike in Brazil, a protest against the removal of diesel subsidies, has disrupted activity and... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Erdogan wins in Turkey, forint hits record low Victories for President Erdogan and the AKP in Turkish elections last weekend have supported a rally in local markets over the course of this week but this has overshadowed the latest survey data... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Election worries in Indonesia, delays in Thailand The strong showing of opposition parties in local elections held across Indonesia on Wednesday is bad news for President Joko Widodo. They could prompt a shift in policymaking towards more populist... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Teflon Abe is back, labour market tightening rapidly Japan has looked to be at full employment for some time but the latest releases have called that assumption into question and raised the possibility that wage growth – and the Bank of Japan’s hopes of... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa employment, Nigeria targets imports again This week’s South African employment figures were less positive than they appear at first glance. Elsewhere, official economic growth slowed in Ghana in Q1. New poverty estimates caused a storm in... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What would an Amlo presidency mean for Mexico? A victory for left-wing populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo) in Mexico’s presidential election on Sunday appears to be priced in to markets. But a strong showing for his Morena coalition in... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update FPC confident that UK banks can cope with Brexit The Financial Policy Committee’s (FPC’s) biannual assessment of financial stability found that the banking sector is in good health, and should be able to withstand a disorderly Brexit. As a result... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Weak performance in key economies Figures released over the past month confirmed that Africa’s larger economies have all struggled in 2018. South Africa, where GDP actually fell in Q1, was the worst performer. Elsewhere, figures from... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will productivity growth rebound? Forecasting shifts in productivity is notoriously hard but past experience suggests that the recent slowdown in productivity growth in Japan should reverse over the coming decade. Nonetheless, with... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Philippines: A two-year progress report on President Duterte Two years after coming to power, President Duterte of the Philippines has not been the disaster for the economy that some feared. Growth has remained strong, while economic policy has been left in the... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
