Africa Economics Weekly

SA elections: State of play & implications for the SARB

South Africa’s election results have continued to trickle in, but the overriding message since the early hours of the count is that the ANC has fallen well short of a majority. A coalition with one of...

31st May 2024 · 7 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Is there a growth dividend from a large government majority?

With both Labour and the Conservatives this week ruling out increases in income tax, national insurance and VAT, it remains difficult to see how cuts to public services can be avoided after the...

31st May 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico heads to the polls, IMF’s optimism about Brazil

Mexicans head to the polls on Sunday and, while Claudia Sheinbaum appears to be a shoo-in to win the presidency, attention will probably focus on the congressional results which will determine her...

31st May 2024 · 8 mins read

India Economics Weekly

What to watch for in a momentous week

India's general election is coming to an end and from a macro perspective the key thing for investors to watch for is whether it delivers a government that has a working parliamentary majority that...

31st May 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ set for crunch talks and Egypt’s fiscal reforms

This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting could be a stick or twist moment with markets increasingly believing the group will roll over its quotas and voluntary cuts again. If quotas are extended, that risks...

30th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa’s Election

The early results from South Africa’s election which took place yesterday point to the ruling ANC securing a vote share closer to the low end of projections (at just over 40%), increasing the chances...

30th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus

Labor isn’t wrecking the economy just yet

Labor’s regulatory push can’t be blamed for the recent slump in labour productivity and we aren’t convinced that it will hold back future productivity growth much either. Indeed, we still think that a...

28th May 2024 · 17 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA elections: Can the ANC hold on? Kenya-US visit

There’s less than a week to go until South Africa’s pivotal election and there remains significant uncertainty about the ANC’s likely vote share and, if it’s forced to go into coalition, who it will...

24th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s vote, Chile’s rate cut, Argentina’s trade surplus

The dramatic improvement in Argentina’s trade balance has helped the central bank to rebuild its FX reserves, but this has only been made possible because domestic demand has collapsed. A weaker...

24th May 2024 · 6 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Economic tailwind for the election winner

While the economic data released between now and the general election on 4 th July is unlikely to have a big influence on the result, further falls in inflation, interest rates and gilt yields may...

24th May 2024 · 4 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Is PM Modi on the backfoot?

As India’s mammoth general election enters its final week, a narrative that has unfolded in the international media is a waning of popular support for Prime Minister Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP...

24th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi-US pact nears, MENA bond issuances, Iran election

Reports that the US and Saudi Arabia are nearing to a grand deal on security and the Kingdom’s civilian nuclear program would, if confirmed, swing the Kingdom back towards the US’s sphere of influence...

23rd May 2024 · 6 mins read

Global Markets Update

Worst may not be over yet for South African financial assets

Having underperformed most other EMs since the pandemic, we think that returns of financial assets in South Africa will continue to disappoint. The outlook would worsen if the African National...

23rd May 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Focus

South Africa’s election: into the unknown?

South Africa’s upcoming election looks set to herald a new era of coalition government. There are lots of permutations ranging from a centrist ANC-DA coalition to a so-called ‘doomsday coalition’ in...

23rd May 2024 · 18 mins read

India Economics Update

China’s threat to Indian manufacturing

India has made impressive progress in raising its share of global high-end electronics exports over the past few years. But, worryingly, it has failed to capture any additional market share in the...

23rd May 2024 · 5 mins read