Latin America Economics Update Mexico: the new Nafta, Amlo and receding policy risks The announcement of a trilateral trade deal with the US and Canada removes one major source of uncertainty surrounding Mexico’s outlook. The focus will increasingly shift onto the policies of... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q3) The deterioration in business conditions in the Q3 Tankan supports our view that GDP growth slowed last quarter. That said, firms remain optimistic about the outlook for capital spending and the... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Labour true to form, Brexit drag on investment to continue The Labour Party announced a new policy at their conference this week that would see companies transfer some of their shares to employees. While this policy in isolation might not be too damaging for... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly African Rates: Loosening cycle spluttering to a halt Central banks across Africa held their rates unchanged this week, strengthening our view that the region’s long loosening cycle has now come to an end. Nigeria’s election cycle will get into gear next... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget deficit, Royal Commission and election risk The shrinking budget deficit gives the Coalition government a bit more fiscal ammunition to deploy ahead of Australia’s next Federal election, while there is no way of knowing at this stage how the... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The bumpy road to Brexit: a primer There are now only six months left to negotiate the deal under which the UK will leave the EU and move into a transition period. This Update lays out five key questions and answers on what still needs... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The bumpy road to Brexit: a primer There are now only six months left to negotiate the deal under which the UK will leave the EU and move into a transition period. This Update lays out five key questions and answers on what still needs... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack A good year for growth The surprising strength of economic growth in the second quarter has led us to revise up our forecasts for GDP growth in the 2018 calendar year from 2.5% to 3.2% for Australia and from 2.5% to 2.7%... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Turmoil in Argentina underscores policy challenges The surprise resignation of Argentina’s central bank governor, Luis Caputo, and nationwide strikes – in protest against President Macri’s austerity plan – underscore the difficulty of fixing the... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Ousting of Swedish PM won’t upend plans for rate hikes Today’s ouster of Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven might seem to justify yet another delay to the Riskbank’s policy normalisation plans. But the economy should continue to perform well and might... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Rates may not rise until late in 2020 Although the Reserve Bank of Australia will note the strength of the recent news on the domestic economy while leaving interest rates at 1.50% at the meeting on Tuesday 2nd October, it’s unlikely to... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Election campaigning gets underway in Indonesia Campaigning ahead of next April’s presidential election in Indonesia officially got underway at the weekend, with President Joko Widodo (also known as Jokowi) set to take on former general, Prabowo... 24th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is Brexit uncertainty hurting the economy? We estimate that Brexit uncertainty has knocked about 0.5 percentage points off GDP growth in the two years since the referendum through its impact on investment. Provided a deal is struck as we... 24th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling buffeted by growing risk of no deal Theresa May’s combative comments in a surprise press conference earlier today indicated that the chances of a no deal scenario have risen, causing the largest one-day fall in the pound in eleven... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Haddad mimicking Amlo, Argentina’s bigger IMF deal Support for Fernando Haddad, the presidential candidate of Brazil’s Workers’ Party, has risen over the past week and recent comments suggest that he is trying to distance himself from the party’s left... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rise in inflation won’t worry MPC, Brexit mood sours The unexpected rise in inflation in August came as a bit of a nasty surprise. But we still think that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) can afford to sit tight until Brexit uncertainty has been... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
