Asia Economics Weekly Key challenges facing Bangladesh after the election The Awami League led by Prime Minister Hasina is widely expected to win the general election on 30 th December. Low wages and a rapidly growing workforce mean Bangladesh should continue to pick up low... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP National Accounts (Q3) & Public Finances (Nov.) The economy isn’t as healthy as the unrevised 0.6% q/q rise in GDP in the third quarter suggests, but providing that a Brexit deal is reached, we think GDP growth will surprise on the upside next year... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Buhari’s budget, Nigerian bank consolidation, Ghana GDP Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari laid out his 2019 budget proposal this week, emphasising that he plans to keep key policies unchanged if he is re-elected in February. A big bank merger in the... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Xi’s flawed “China model”, PBOC’s new policy tool Xi Jinping used the 40 th anniversary of the start of China’s economic reforms to set out a narrative which placed state and, in particular, Party control at the heart of China’s subsequent economic... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should Brexit fog clear, risks to rates lie on the upside The thickening Brexit fog meant that the Monetary Policy Committee was always going to leave interest rates at 0.75% today and it looks as though that fog won’t fade for a few months. But should a... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi’s optimistic oil price forecasts, Morocco’s IMF deal Saudi Arabia’s 2019 budget was premised on optimistic assumptions regarding oil prices that are likely to be disappointed. If we’re right, fiscal austerity will probably return in mid-2019 and there’s... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Uneven recovery hints at weak 2019 Figures released this month showed that Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest two economies remained weak in late 2018, but that activity picked up faster elsewhere in the region. These readings strengthen our... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Tighter credit conditions will weigh on growth The latest NAB survey showed that firms are facing the largest difficulties getting finance since 2012, which suggests that credit growth may slow sharply. (See Chart 1.) That may be a reflection of... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack A mixed year for markets 2018 has been a mixed bag for India’s financial markets. The bond market has seen significant gyrations, only for yields to end the year virtually flat from 12 months ago. Meanwhile, the 7% rise in... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Budget dispute raises risk of debt ceiling crisis in 2019 A partial government shutdown this Friday would probably have only a modest impact on the economy. With the current gridlock only likely to intensify once the Democrats assume control of the House... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Xi signals state sector to remain dominant Hopes that President Xi would use his speech today on the 40th anniversary of the start of China’s “Reform and Opening Up” to announce a renewed push for market-based reforms were disappointed. Rather... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Philippines: current account deficit hits record in Q3 One of the key risks to the Philippines over the coming year is a further widening of the current account deficit. Data released earlier in the week showed the deficit widened to 3.0% of GDP in the... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit and the economy: What next? MPs are increasingly pushing for the Government to change tack to break the current political impasse by stepping up “no deal” planning, considering a second referendum, forcing a general election or... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus What to expect in 2019 Economic growth in India has peaked in this cycle, but we expect it to remain strong ahead of the general election in the first half of 2019. Thereafter, fiscal policy will need to be tightened and... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A guide to elections in 2019 In this Update we discuss the key implications of EM elections scheduled for 2019. Votes in Ukraine and Argentina – where opposition candidates could put IMF deals at risk – probably pose the greatest... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt: paving the way for a weaker pound The past month has brought signs that Egyptian policymakers are trying to simplify the country’s exchange rate setup, which is ultimately likely to result in a weaker pound. Over the past six months... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
