Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poor election results to prompt Polish fiscal splurge The worse-than-expected performance of the ruling PiS party in Poland’s local elections last weekend is likely to prompt policymakers in Warsaw to ramp up social spending ahead of next year’s... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil and Argentina: reform hopes rising… for now The sharp rallies in the Argentine peso and Brazilian real reflect growing optimism that economic policymaking will improve in both countries, but markets seem to be looking through the political... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi markets not out of the woods, oil prices drop The rally in Saudi Arabia’s stock market today has partially reversed the losses suffered since Jamal Khashoggi’s disappearance hit the headlines. But the threat of sanctions, coupled with falling oil... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: further rate hikes unlikely to materialise The Turkish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged today and the accompanying statement reinforce our view that last month’s aggressive rate hike didn’t represent a shift back to... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Region set for a temporary rebound The recovery in the Middle East and North Africa will gather pace over the rest of this year and in early 2019, but growth will peak sooner than most expect. Egypt’s cyclical upturn should continue... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Shadow bank concerns come to the fore India’s shadow banking sector has been thrust into the spotlight over the past few weeks, triggered by news that the Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services (IL&FS) Group is likely to miss several... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi dollar peg to remain intact The fallout from the murder of Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, appears to have triggered a spike in capital outflows, putting pressure on the riyal. But we think it’s highly unlikely that the Saudi... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget Preview – waiting for the Brexit fog to clear The greater-than-expected improvement in the public finances over the past few months, should give the Chancellor a windfall to spend at next week’s Budget. But we suspect that the Chancellor will... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Stronger investment intentions bode well, for now The third-quarter Business Outlook Survey revealed a rebound in firms’ investment intentions, which is consistent with machinery and equipment investment growth remaining close to 10% y/y. Moreover... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A slow and uneven recovery Growth in Latin America as a whole is likely to strengthen over the coming quarters, but with monetary and fiscal policy tightening in most countries, it will be weaker than most expect. We’re... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling resilient in the face of no deal fears We think that the combination of investors already being heavily net short on sterling, a relatively small increase in the odds of a “no deal” Brexit and the fact that sterling has already fallen... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Past the peak Global growth is likely to ease over the next two years, led by slowdowns in the US and China. Although headline inflation should drop back in many advanced economies next year, core inflation will... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update No end in sight for Italian fiscal stand-off The Italian Government’s reply to the European Commission suggests that there is unlikely to be a quick resolution to the current fiscal impasse. We expect yields to rise in the coming years. 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Politics and policy may take centre stage Commodity markets will have little in the way of relevant data to focus on next week. Instead, prices are likely to be driven more by developments on the political and policy fronts. The case of the... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly PBOC restarts FX sales, state media get new buzzword The PBOC has been hiding its efforts to support the renminbi over recent months. But a release this week showed the clear hand of the central bank: the PBOC’s balance sheet for September reveals the... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Growth still well above trend in third quarter Data next week are likely to show GDP growth slowing to 3.3% annualised in the third quarter. That would still be well above the economy’s potential growth rate but, looking under the hood, there are... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
