Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s pound to lose ground, Saudi anti-corruption drive The appreciation of the Egyptian pound this week appears to have been driven by a spurt of foreign portfolio inflows, but we still think that the currency will record a modest fall in the next couple... 31st January 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jan.) While GfK/NOP consumer confidence held steady in January, it did so at a five-year low of -14, and the bigger picture is that consumers remain downbeat despite a fairly healthy economic backdrop. That... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What a no-deal Brexit would mean for Ireland The latest twists in the Brexit saga suggest to us that the UK is most likely to stay in the EU beyond 29th March and leave later in the year with some kind of deal. If so, we think Ireland’s GDP... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Further fall in Italian investment likely this year A poor economic outlook and elevated political risks are unlikely to result in a reversal of the increased risk aversion towards Italian property assets. As a result, investment in Italy is likely to... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Jan.) The further drop in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in January adds to the evidence that the euro-zone economy got off to a slow start to 2019. 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Parliament votes on May's Brexit "Plan B" Support for Brady’s Brexit amendment in the House of Commons this evening is good result for Theresa May but is arguably not the best news for the near-term outlook for the economy and the pound as it... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How are UK markets positioned for Brexit and the global slowdown? In this Focus, we consider how sterling, Gilts and UK equities will be affected by the outcome of negotiations over Brexit and the global economic slowdown that we are anticipating. Our judgement is... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update US sanctions PDVSA, next few months critical The decision by the US to impose sanctions on Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, PDVSA, will lead to a large loss of export earnings in the next few months. If Maduro can cling on to power during... 29th January 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Focus How will the UK cope with the global slowdown? As long as some form of Brexit deal is agreed this year, then the UK is well placed to shrug off the slowdown in the global economy. In fact, in 2020 the UK may surprise most people by being the... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The ins and outs of delaying Brexit With 60 days to go and no deal agreed, it looks increasingly likely that Brexit will be delayed beyond 29th March. This Update answers seven questions on how Brexit could be delayed by extending the... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Lenín going to the IMF, Venezuela’s crisis deepens Speculation is growing that Ecuador’s president, Lenín Moreno, will seek an IMF deal in the coming months, and history suggests that the recent rally in sovereign dollar bonds has further to run... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed likely to stick with “patient” mantra At next week’s policy meeting, the Fed is likely to reiterate its current mantra that it can be “patient” in waiting to hike interest rates. Admittedly, stock markets have recovered most of the losses... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Shutdown will lift delinquencies, but not foreclosures Households struggling to pay their mortgage thanks to the government shutdown will be offered forbearance. That won’t prevent a rise in the mortgage delinquency rate, but with back pay guaranteed it... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Parliament grabbing the wheel steers sterling higher While the vote in Parliament next Tuesday might not break the Brexit deadlock, it could give us a better steer on where the UK is headed. After all, MPs will vote on a series of amendments which could... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Peace in Mindanao and a less hawkish Fed Peace in the restive southern province of Mindanao, the second biggest island in the Philippines, could lead to big economic gains for the island itself, but is unlikely to have much impact on overall... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Brexit clouds the outlook for consumers The slump in retail sales volumes in December is not too worrying given that it seems to have largely reflected consumers bringing forward Christmas purchases in order to take advantage of ‘Black... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
