Canada Economics Weekly Doubts about USMCA, positive signs from housing While the US midterm results mean that there is now even more uncertainty about when the USMCA might be signed by Congress, we do not think that the trade deal itself is in doubt. Meanwhile, there... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s mixed surveys, Mozambique’s debt The raft of survey releases in South Africa this week provided contradictory messages, but on balance we think that conditions continued to improve at the start of Q4. Meanwhile, the news that the... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: First Estimate (Q3) The GDP figures confirmed that economic growth accelerated in Q3. But it seems unlikely that the economy will be able to keep up this pace with Brexit uncertainty hanging over it. 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC to talk output cuts, Tunisia rates, Egypt’s wage bill Rumours suggest that OPEC will discuss the possibility of oil output cuts this weekend, although a decision seems highly unlikely at this stage. But if oil prices fall further, as we expect... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US midterms don’t change the economic outlook The Democrats were widely expected to win control of the House in yesterday’s midterm elections and the results set the stage for two years of legislative gridlock. President Donald Trump and the... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Midterms don’t change the economic outlook The Democrats were widely expected to win control of the House in yesterday’s midterm elections and the results set the stage for two years of legislative gridlock. President Donald Trump and the... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US midterms unlikely to trigger a big market reaction We don’t expect today’s midterm elections in the US to have a major bearing on its stock market, even if the Republicans retain both chambers of Congress or the Democrats do very well. 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Nov.) The big drop in the Markit/CIPS services PMI suggests that GDP growth slowed sharply at the start of Q4, which could be a sign that Brexit uncertainty is increasingly weighing on activity. So long as... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Upcoming Amlo flashpoints, Brazil’s pension hurdles The decision by Mexican president-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo) to cancel the Texcoco airport construction spooked local markets, and upcoming decisions on the 2019 budget and oil field... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP growth to rebound in Q4 Delays to car production appear to have had a big impact on GDP in Q3, particularly in Germany and Italy. But these effects should be temporary, so we expect growth to rebound in Q4. This suggests... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Midterms will split Congress; Fed on hold until Dec. The betting odds suggest that there are few uncertainties surrounding the broad outcomes of Tuesday’s midterm elections, with the Democrats likely to win control of the House while the Republicans... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Immigration door opens a little further The new types of work visas Japan’s government plans to introduce in April will probably result in an even greater inflow of foreign workers over the coming years. That’s a step in the right direction... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Autumn Budget package will boost growth (and rates) The fiscal loosening announced in the Autumn Budget has prompted us to raise our forecasts for GDP growth and interest rates. In our base case, which assumes a Brexit deal is secured, we now expect... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC hints rates will rise quicker than markets expect The “Super Thursday” releases from the Bank of England support our view that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will raise interest rates more quickly than markets expect, if a Brexit deal is struck. 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi loosens fiscal policy, Tunisia reforms face delay Data released this week confirmed that higher oil prices have prompted Saudi Arabia’s government to loosen fiscal policy further and we expect this to continue over the next few quarters, boosting... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The fall in the manufacturing PMI to its lowest level since immediately after the EU referendum suggests that the sector will drag on growth in Q4 as Brexit uncertainty weighs on investment and export... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
