UK Economics Weekly BoE’s change of heart might be overdone The Bank of England drove a bulldozer through its near-term projections this week as it ratcheted up the severity of Brexit uncertainty and the corresponding impact on the economy in its forecast. We... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Thai politics upended, central banks turn dovish The nomination of Princess Ubolratana Rajakanya Sirivadhana Varnavadi (sister of the current king) as a prime ministerial candidate in Thailand’s upcoming general election, has completely changed the... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Retail divergence to intensify Capital value growth is expected to fall across the board this year. However, outside of the retail sector, falls are expected to be modest. Nevertheless, given the solid outlook for economic growth... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Ramaphosa focuses on Eskom reform President Cyril Ramaphosa used a key speech yesterday to promise to reform South Africa’s state-owned utility and to pitch himself as a gradual reformer in the lead-up to a national election now set... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Eskom reforms, EFF manifesto, Nigeria faces crucial election South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s plan to split Eskom into three is a welcome sign that Pretoria is willing to consider serious, structural reforms to the troubled electricity utility. Fiscal... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s new government, Dubai’s loan rollover The formation of a new government in Lebanon has raised investors’ hopes that the dire public finances will be put on a stable footing. But we think that these will be disappointed, causing the recent... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Waiting for the handbrake to be released Brexit is a political crisis, not an economic one. While the extra uncertainty caused by Brexit has clearly hampered investment and consumption, the economy is fundamentally sound. There are still... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Jan.) The headline index of the Markit/CIPS services survey in January suggests that the slowdown which began in Q4 worsened at the start of Q1. And worries about future demand now appear to be seeping into... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy and Spain diverge, Brexit risks and Ireland At the end of last year, Italy fell back into recession but Spain’s economic growth rate accelerated. We think that this divergence will continue. Next week is a quieter one for data releases; we... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Parliament hits Brexit back to May Parliament hit the Brexit ball back into May’s court this week, leaving us with no clearer picture of how Brexit might unfold than we had this time last week. But beneath the bouncing Brexit headlines... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The developing global slowdown has caused the UK manufacturing sector to weaken despite evidence that activity is being supported by some stockbuilding ahead of Brexit. The upshot is that there is... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenyan rates will remain on hold, but cuts elsewhere Kenyan policymakers left their key policy rate unchanged this week, and we think that they will hold rates over the remainder of the year. Peers in Angola and Ghana – who cut this week – will probably... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Universal Basic Income is worthy but unfeasible The idea of a Universal Basic Income (UBI) in India has gained attention again this week. While a UBI could go a long way towards eradicating poverty and reducing the problems with the current welfare... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Policy paralysis While it is guaranteed that the Monetary Policy Committee will leave interest rates at 0.75% at the policy meeting on Thursday 7th February, the accompanying Inflation Report may provide some crucial... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Political turmoil puts debt burdens under the spotlight Frontier dollar bonds have rallied this month, due partly to improved risk appetite, but also progress on IMF deals (Ukraine and Sri Lanka) and the political news flow (Venezuela and Lebanon). But it... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Venezuela at a tipping point Venezuela’s sovereign dollar bonds have rallied strongly over the past few weeks as investors appear to be betting on a swift regime change and a smooth debt restructuring, but the markets risk... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
