Japan Chart Pack Wage growth weakening Major electronics firms and carmakers offered workers smaller base pay increases during this year’s spring wage negotiations than they did last year. (See Chart.) Only a small share of firms... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Next big leg up in sterling most likely after 29th March Although sterling could continue its ascent this week if PM May can get closer to squeezing her deal through Parliament, our best guess is that the next big leg up in the currency will occur after... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What does a Brexit delay mean for the UK economy? The length of any delay to Brexit beyond 29th March could have a fairly large bearing on the performance of the economy and the path taken by official interest rates. A delay of 12 months or more... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCRA measures no silver bullet, team Amlo discord Measures announced by Argentina’s central bank last night appear to have supported the peso today, but the currency will remain vulnerable to large falls, particularly as October’s presidential... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Little Brexit clarity, but at least the economy is coping well The Brexit merry-go-round continued this week, with the voting in Parliament providing little clarity on where the UK is headed and prolonging the political uncertainty weighing on the economy. Indeed... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukrainian election, signs of stimulus in Russia Pro-IMF comments this week from the front-runner in Ukraine’s presidential election race (and comedian), Volodymyr Zelenskiy, reduce the risk that this month’s vote could trigger an adverse reaction... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The implications for the economy of a delay to Brexit The length of any delay to Brexit beyond 29th March could have a fairly large bearing on the performance of the economy and the path taken by official interest rates. A delay of 12 months or more... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa slowdown, SARB, no word from Buhari Data published this week showed continued weakness in South Africa’s economy at the start of the year which, coming alongside soft inflation, may bring interest rate cuts onto the table sooner than we... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines budget deadlock, Indonesia election Economic growth in the Philippines is likely to slow unless the 2019 budget is approved soon, but the cuts the government has announced to its GDP growth forecast for this year look too severe. We... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Three takeaways from the NPC Premier Li spoke to the press at the close of the National People’s Congress (NPC) today. He offered further details on the timing and scale of policy support – smaller than in previous cycles but... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Investment recovery concentrated in key states India’s economic diversity and the decentralisation of policymaking power mean that investors should keep an eye on developments at the state as well as the national level to understand trends in the... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Thailand: outlook unlikely to improve after the election Thailand’s upcoming election will do little to improve the economic outlook. Whoever wins, the shift towards economic populism is likely to continue, delaying reforms needed to raise productivity... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Vote on a No Deal Brexit The indication by Parliament tonight that it wants to avoid a no deal Brexit will be welcomed by the financial markets as it reduces the chances of the weakest scenario for the economy, although not... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Spring Statement Response: A sideshow surprise The Spring Statement was always going to be a sideshow to the Parliamentary votes on Brexit tonight and tomorrow, but the Chancellor managed to provide a small surprise by saying he had more money to... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Brexit mess still not a big threat to world economy The second defeat of Theresa May’s Brexit deal in the UK Parliament has increased the risks to the UK economy by prolonging uncertainty and leaving a no deal a possibility. But for the world as a... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Second Vote on PM’s Brexit Deal The defeat in Parliament of May’s Brexit deal tonight for a second time increases the downside risks to the economy by prolonging the uncertainty and leaving a no deal a possibility. At least January... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
