India Economics Weekly RBI confusion, Rajasthan election Some have interpreted the small cuts to the statutory liquidity ratio announced by the RBI this week as evidence that the central bank is loosening policy, but we disagree. Meanwhile, the state... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are the surveys overstating the impact of Brexit again? The deterioration in the business surveys in November was probably partly driven by growing fears that the Brexit mess will not be sorted out in time to avoid a no deal. As such, economic activity... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Long-term Global Economic Outlook Long-term Global Economic Outlook We think that world GDP growth will average around 3.0% over the next twenty years, compared to around 3.5% over the past two decades. Productivity growth is likely to rebound in advanced economies... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Election not a reason to expect Mexican growth to slow Mexican economic growth has weakened after all but one presidential election since 1950, and there have been growing suggestions that the recent change of government could cause growth to weaken next... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How will a no deal Brexit impact UK property? We expect a no deal Brexit to bring a hit to UK commercial property capital values of between 5% and 9%, which will be mild compared with past crashes. Even in our central forecast, assuming a Brexit... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: is energy reform now dead? The decision by Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo) to seemingly postpone Mexico’s deep water oil auctions for three years is unlikely to have a major bearing on oil production in the near term. But it... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Heading for a weak Q4 Following the solid rise in GDP in the third quarter, the recent news has been disappointing. The business surveys suggest that output barely increased at all in November. And following a brief period... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Nov.) It is not too surprising that we have now reached the point where the Brexit shenanigans are weighing more heavily on activity. But we suspect the Markit/CIPS survey is overstating the slowdown in... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump less likely to back out of his own trade deal The trade ceasefire agreed by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping bears a striking resemblance to the ill-fated deal reached back in May but, with Trump himself having personally negotiated the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French riots add to downside risks to outlook Riots over living costs in France have not altered our view that the economy will outperform most of its neighbours in the next two years. But they highlight how difficult it will be for President... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How might markets react if the Brexit deal is rejected? Markets are likely to be relatively nonplussed if Parliament narrowly rejects Theresa May’s Brexit deal. However, a decisive defeat may elicit significant moves in either direction, depending on... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar leaving OPEC not a game changer Qatar’s decision to pull out of the oil cartel, OPEC, is unlikely to have a major impact on global energy markets but it further cements the country’s feud with Saudi Arabia and its allies. The... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Trade ceasefire is no growth panacea, even if it lasts The ceasefire agreed by Trump and Xi will help avert a sharp slowdown in US-China trade at the start of next year. But negotiations toward a lasting deal are likely to be fraught. And broader... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Trump-Xi truce provides some relief for commodities Mounting US protectionism, particularly towards China, has been a key factor weighing on commodity prices for much of this year. As such, news that China and the US are to resume talks provides some... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Tariffs not benefitting other countries On the eve of the Xi-Trump showdown the latest data show that exports from China to the US of the goods affected by the first round of tariffs have fallen. But there is no sign that other countries... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico blames Amlo, commodities driving BRL again The minutes to Banxico’s latest interest rate meeting send a clear message that the recent policy shift under Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (Amlo’s) will result in further rate hikes. Elsewhere... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
