Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: Istanbul election re-run poses stimulus risks The decision to cancel and re-run the Istanbul mayoral election is likely to prompt the Turkish government to continue loosening fiscal policy in the coming weeks. Past experience suggests that the... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa: Election unlikely to spur reforms President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC is all-but certain to win this week’s election, but we’re sceptical that this will provide impetus to his sluggish reform drive. The ruling party will, after all... 6th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to expect from the European Parliament elections A surge in support for populist parties in European parliamentary elections later this month should have little bearing on economic policy in the near term. After all, moderate parties are still... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC takes a hawkish turn, Brexit hangover in Q2 The most surprising news from the Bank of England’s Inflation Report this week was not the suggestion that interest rates need to rise more quickly than the markets currently anticipate, but the... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why bond investors shouldn’t dread the EU elections We doubt that bond markets will be negatively affected by the European Parliament (EP) elections this month, as the rise of anti-EU parties is already widely anticipated and would not necessarily... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Record GST revenues, weaker rupee The surge in GST revenues over recent months won’t be enough to solve the government’s fiscal woes in the near term. However, it does suggest that compliance with the new tax system is improving, and... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What to expect from the European Parliament elections A surge in support for populist parties in European parliamentary elections later this month should have little bearing on economic policy in the near term. After all, moderate parties are still... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will firms pass on rises in labour costs? With CPI inflation still subdued, firms’ profit margins appear to have borne the brunt of the recent rises in wage costs. However, we suspect that firms will pass on rising costs to consumers in time... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Four points on EM political risk premiums The key determinants of EM political risk premiums are the type of political shock and the strength of an economy’s external balance sheet. With this in mind, Ukraine and Argentina have the greatest... 1st May 2019 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Interest rates set to fall The economic outlook has deteriorated in both Australia and New Zealand. In Australia, the downturn in the housing market and falling business confidence should mean that GDP growth will continue to... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Political risks begin to crystallise The past month has seen political risks in key economies start to crystallise. The rout in Argentine markets, triggered by concerns about the dwindling re-election prospects of President Macri, has... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What would a Labor victory mean for Australia? Labor has pledged sizeable tax hikes that probably won’t be offset by higher expenditure, which means that fiscal policy will almost certainly be tighter in Australia under a Labor government than... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: market sell-off intensifies election risks The broad-based sell-off in Argentine assets over the past week or so, triggered by growing political risks, has resulted in a sharp tightening of financial conditions, which will weigh on economic... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update An ageing population won’t stop growth in its tracks An ageing population should have dragged down participation in the labour force sharply over the past decade, but falling economic inactivity, particularly amongst women, has meant that the... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Election outcome won’t end Spanish outperformance Following this weekend’s election, we suspect that Spain’s next government will tighten fiscal policy slightly, contributing to slower GDP growth over the coming years. But the country still looks set... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What does a Labor victory mean for Australia? Labor has pledged sizeable tax hikes that probably won’t be offset by higher expenditure, which means that fiscal policy will almost certainly be tighter under a Labor government than under the... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
