UK Data Response GDP Monthly Estimate (Nov.) The easing in GDP growth in the three months to November leaves growth only a little below the rates seen before the temporary factors of the World Cup and the unusually hot weather boosted it in the... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update New UK economic forecasts in various Brexit outcomes Given the huge and growing uncertainty surrounding Brexit, we are now placing much more emphasis on three forecasts for the economy that are based on different Brexit outcomes. The key point, though... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack The stock market slump is not over In spite of the recovery that has taken hold since the turn of the year, we think that equities have further to fall. It is well known that UK stock indices are heavily weighted towards energy... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Our new economic forecasts in various Brexit outcomes Given the huge and growing uncertainty surrounding Brexit, we are now placing much more emphasis on three forecasts for the economy that are based on different Brexit outcomes. The key point, though... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Election will be turning point for the economy Economic growth in India has peaked in this cycle, but we expect it to remain strong ahead of the general election in the first half of this year. Thereafter, fiscal policy will need to be tightened... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack A weak end to the year Much like the year just passed, 2019 will be a subdued year for housing. Transactions and mortgage approvals saw no meaningful gains, house prices grew very slowly, and all signs point to a weak first... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) A strong batch of ESIs for December provided some positive news for the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) following the recent release of a poor set of PMIs and a raft of weak activity... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Dec.) Following on from the disappointing German industrial production data released earlier today, the drop in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for December is yet another sign that there was a... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Households well placed to spend more It’s well known that the uncertainty caused by the Brexit bedlam probably contributed to GDP growth easing from 0.6% q/q in Q3 of last year to 0.3% or less in Q4. But it’s less appreciated that should... 7th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update A guide to elections in 2019 In this Update we take a look at the important elections that are set to take place across Emerging Asia over the coming year, assessing the implications for policymaking and economic growth. 7th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Slow growth, Christmas spending & stockpiling Much like a drone over an airport runway, Brexit is preventing the UK economy from taking off in 2019. But the foundations are in place for growth to fly once (if) Brexit lands. 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro boost continues, Banxico a bit less hawkish Brazilian markets have performed strongly this week as hopes for business-friendly reforms under President Jair Bolsonaro have continued to build, but we think that the rally may run out of steam... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Shutdown likely to continue into third week The Federal government has now been partially shuttered for the past two weeks, which already makes it one of the longest closures on record. Given the intransigence on both sides, there is a very... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE bond rally to reverse, Turkish elections and rate cuts Investors pared back their expectations for interest rate hikes in Central Europe this week, but we still think that a fresh pick-up in inflation will prompt more monetary tightening than most... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Strong growth in Kenya, MTN settles in Nigeria Figures released in Kenya this week have strengthened our view that the country will be one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies of 2019. Meanwhile, the settlement between South African telecoms... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Weak end to 2018, rate cuts likely in the Philippines Data published over the past week show that Emerging Asia ended 2018 on a soft note, a trend we expect to continue into 2019. Meanwhile, a further sharp drop in inflation in the Philippines in... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
