Europe Economic Outlook Missing the global tightening cycle The euro-zone should regain some momentum in the coming months, at least compared to its dire performance at the end of last year. But we think the economy will expand by just 1% in 2019 as a whole... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What might a “soft” Brexit look like? With Prime Minister Theresa May now holding cross-party talks, the chances have risen of a “soft” Brexit, resulting in the UK retaining closer ties with the EU than her defeated deal would have... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Shutdown costs continue to mount We have long argued that, rather than trade policy, an extended Federal government shutdown would be the key downside risk to the economy this year. Sure enough, the current stand-off is already the... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sentiment, not fundamentals, weighing on activity UK politics remains in meltdown. And there are plenty of signs that this is weighing on sentiment. But beneath this, the economy is well placed to benefit if and when the Brexit uncertainty lifts. 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) December’s slump means that retail sales volumes fell in Q4 as a whole. Unless a Brexit deal is signed soon, there is unlikely to be much of a rebound in Q1 2019 either. That said, if a no deal Brexit... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB turns dovish, Nigerian opposition flip-flops on reforms Policymakers in South Africa toned down their hawkish language at their meeting this week, suggesting that rate hikes are now off the agenda. Elsewhere, Nigeria’s leading opposition politician laid... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A slow recovery GDP growth in Latin America should strengthen in the coming quarters, but the pace of the recovery will be weaker than most expect. Fiscal and monetary policy are likely to be tightened and external... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update UK political chaos not a big threat to global economy To the outside world, it looks as though the UK is descending into chaos over Brexit. But while it is true that the UK political situation is in meltdown, its economy is holding up reasonably well... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What to expect from elections in Europe this year In a busy election calendar this year, the focus will be on the rise of populist and euro-sceptic parties. Elections for the European Parliament in May are the most high profile event, but there will... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Dec.) December’s RICS data support our view that the housing market will stay weak in 2019. Indeed, with Brexit uncertainty set to be extended, we expect little or no growth in transactions this year. 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update When will the economy get a Brexit boost? The overwhelming defeat of the Brexit deal in Parliament last night increases the chances of the economy performing along the lines of our “fudge and delay” scenario, in which GDP growth rebounds in... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Nov.) The stagnation in machinery orders in November suggests that business investment wasn’t the main driver of the likely rebound in Q4 GDP. But we still expect capital spending to rise at a strong pace... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Meaningful Vote on May’s Brexit Deal The resounding defeat of May’s Brexit deal in Parliament by a huge 230 votes this evening is a very bad result for the Prime Minister but could prove to be a good result for the near-term outlook for... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A meaningful vote for sterling Either a narrow or a heavy defeat in Parliament’s meaningful vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal tonight would probably prompt the pound to rise. An inconclusive moderate defeat would arguably be the... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit: what happens next? In this Update we set out what might happen with Brexit over the coming days and months. We have already illustrated how the various Brexit outcomes would influence the economy and financial markets... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Waiting for the Brexit handbrake to be released The most likely Brexit outcome, for now at least, appears to be a delay of a few months beyond March. While this means that we will have to wait a little longer for the Brexit handbrake on the economy... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
