Global Markets Update Populists unlikely to rattle markets at EU elections We suspect that the European Parliament (EP) elections will not cause much reaction on bond markets, even if populist parties perform even better than expected. Recent elections in the EU suggest that... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: CFK shakes up the election The decision by populist and anti-IMF former president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, to run for vice president in October’s election (with a more moderate Peronist at the top of the ticket) has... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What does the Coalition victory mean for Australia? The Coalition government’s surprise victory in the Australian federal election won’t make much of a difference for fiscal policy in the near-term but will result in smaller surpluses beyond 2022. It... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Dire Brazil data, tensions brewing in Argentina Data released this week all-but-confirm that Brazilian GDP contracted in Q1 and it looks touch and go as to whether the economy entered a technical recession in Q2. Another fall in output this quarter... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit sabbatical drawing to a close If you have been enjoying the respite from incessant Brexit headlines over the past few weeks, I’m afraid it’s bad news. This week’s fall in the pound to a three-month low of $1.28 reflects Brexit... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Bankruptcy code is finding its feet Three years to the week that it was ratified, India’s bankruptcy code is now making a significant difference to the speed at which bankruptcy cases are resolved and the amount that creditors are able... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What might trigger a hard landing? Structural headwinds will weigh on China’s growth rate over the coming decade. If well managed, this slowdown will be gradual. But a more abrupt adjustment shouldn’t be ruled out. We see two main... 16th May 2019 · 28 mins read
Energy Update China’s tariff is a major setback for US LNG China’s decision to raise its tariff on US LNG imports from 10% to 25% from 1st June effectively rules the US out of the world’s second-largest, and fastest-growing, market. It will also weigh on spot... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: elections bode poorly for long-run outlook The strong performance by Duterte’s supporters in the midterm elections should lead to further progress on pushing through economic reforms. However, the results will do little to stop the country’s... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Tariffs remain a big risk for the DAX Although equities in the euro-zone have fallen sharply in the past week as the US-China trade dispute has flared up again, they are still much higher than they were at the start of the year. This... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Three reasons for China’s modest retaliation We think the small scale of China’s planned tariff hikes reflects three factors – a desire not to escalate tensions, the limited scope for further tariffs and China’s ability to use other tools to... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly More of the same in Indonesia, Thai election result In his first major policy speech since his re-election President Joko Widodo promised to press ahead with plans to boost infrastructure spending, reduce bureaucracy and open up the economy to foreign... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Weak mandate for Ramaphosa, Another term for Emefiele The comparatively poor showing by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC in Wednesday's election will probably weaken the reformist leader in his on-going struggle with intra-party rivals... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s pension reform: entering choppy waters… Opposition to Brazil’s pension reform has, so far, been limited to fairly minor components of the bill. But it will face more substantial resistance in the coming months. Ultimately, our sense is that... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Strong credit growth no reason to cheer Strong business credit growth could be a sign that firms are becoming more upbeat about the outlook for business investment. In reality though, the data tend to lag actual investment spending and we... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Malaysia’s economy one year after election One year on from Mahathir’s shock re-election, the Malaysian prime minister has made some useful progress in tackling corruption, but his decision to eliminate the Goods and Service Tax (GST) and... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
