Latin America Economics Weekly Currency worries, good news from Argentina Recent sharp falls in the Brazilian real and Mexican peso will add to concerns at their respective central banks. We now expect no further rate cuts in Brazil this year and the risks to our already... 14th June 2024 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Political uncertainty might push French OAT yields even higher The 10-year yield spread between government bonds in France and Germany has risen above 80bp, its highest since the euro-zone debt crisis. Should the far-right National Rally be in a position to form... 14th June 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly How Labour could succeed in raising housebuilding With little fiscal space to play with, the next government will have to get creative in order to deliver on its manifesto pledges. Labour’s plan to change the law so that the state receives more of... 14th June 2024 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France risk and ”reverse contagion” It is difficult to know how radical (or reckless) France’s next government will be on fiscal policy, but the risks to France’s public finances have certainly risen since the snap election was called... 14th June 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Europe leaves the road open for China’s EV-makers China protested the European Commission’s imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles this week but, if the EU goes no further, China’s government is likely to see this as a... 14th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update ANC-DA coalition helps to calm investors’ nerves Reports that the African National Congress (ANC) has reached a deal with the centre-right Democratic Alliance (DA) to form a “national unity” government will be welcomed by investors. If confirmed... 14th June 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly New government, same faces The minimal personnel changes in PM Modi’s new cabinet suggests the new government’s policy direction will be similar to before. Admittedly, concessions on spending may have to be made to appease the... 14th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: The General Election results – The morning after and the macro/markets outlook 1720168200 Will the outcome of the UK general election move the dial on the UK economic outlook? How much would a Labour government deviate from Conservative economic policy?
UK Economics Update Will the next government deliver or deviate from its manifesto? While what’s in and what’s out of the election manifestos is informative, the bigger issue is whether the next government delivers or deviates from its manifesto. This Update sketches out three... 13th June 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Focus Could new fiscal rules spur on the economy? The current fiscal framework is not perfect and could be reformed to improve investor confidence in the management of the public finances, tilt the composition of spending towards investment and... 12th June 2024 · 16 mins read
Europe Economics Update How radical would Le Pen’s party be in office? France’s National Rally has advocated policies that would increase the budget deficit and provoke clashes with the EU. During the election campaign, it will probably moderate these views, but the... 11th June 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Infrastructure drive likely to continue under Modi 3.0 The ramp-up in public capital expenditure in the last five years has helped to ease some of the bottlenecks that had previously acted as a constraint on India’s economy. Despite the Modi government’s... 11th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Political uncertainty in France unnerves markets French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for snap elections has triggered a negative reaction in markets, not only in France but also in the rest of the EU. Even though the far-right... 10th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s energy sector at a turning point? Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s strong environmental credentials mean that a shift away from fossil fuels and towards renewables is likely during her tenure. We doubt that she’ll fully... 10th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: Europe’s shock election results, Macron’s gamble and the economic outlook 1718013600 The shock results of Europe’s parliament elections have roiled markets as investors respond harshly to news of President Macron’s surprise decision to dissolve F
Africa Economics Weekly SA’s uncertain coalition talks, Nigeria’s strike South Africa’s post-election uncertainty continued this week, with the ANC outlining its desire for a government of national unity with a broad range of opposition parties. This looks like a non... 7th June 2024 · 5 mins read
