China Economics Weekly G20 truce, armyworm epidemic Trump and Xi will meet tomorrow and may agree to hold off imposing new tariffs for the time being. While this would be a positive outcome for China’s economy and markets in the short-run, any gains... 28th June 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Upper House elections, higher Nikkei forecasts The ruling coalition will probably defend its two-thirds majority at the Upper House election on 21 st July. That means continued fiscal tightening, ultra-loose monetary policy and little progress on... 28th June 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (May) While the labour market remains tight, the drop in the job-to-applicant ratio is an early sign that it will slacken over coming months. Meanwhile, the jump in industrial production and capital goods... 28th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Ramaphosa has a dream, but few plans South Africa’s president provided essentially no policy detail in yesterday’s ambitious State of the Nation speech. Indeed, he seems to have walked back his plan of a relatively modest restructuring... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea will struggle to reverse demographic decline The Korean government has made some welcome progress over recent years in encouraging more women into formal employment. But even if this trend continues, the size of the workforce in Korea looks set... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Abe blowing his own trumpet a little too loudly PM Abe has presided over a sharp increase in employment since he returned to power in 2012. But productivity growth has been very weak, red tape remains prevalent and there are still too few foreign... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Weaker growth is here to stay With productivity slowing and working age populations set to start falling across most of Asia, we expect regional growth to slow to just 3.5% in a decade’s time. This compares with average growth of... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Pressure for reform ratcheting up The withdrawal this week of the preferential trade status granted by the US to several Indian products will have limited economic impact given that exports of the affected goods were worth just 0.2%... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The policies of the 12 trying to get into Number 10 While the 12 candidates for the leadership of the Conservative party are divided over the best approach to Brexit, they seem reasonably united in calling for looser fiscal policy. That could give the... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US corporate credit spreads likely to rise much further We think that corporate credit spreads in the US will continue to climb this year, as the economy there slows. Our forecast is for the spreads of speculative-grade bonds to rise by well over 100bp, on... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is the trade war impacting Japanese FDI? While there is growing anecdotal evidence of some Japanese firms shifting production of US-bound goods from China to Southeast Asia, the large size of China’s domestic market means that China will... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Who is winning the trade war? With the trade war between the US and China continuing to escalate, a clear winner is starting to emerge: Vietnam. Since around the middle of last year, Vietnam’s exports to the US have shot up by... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Prime Minister May falls, CPI inflation rises The announcement by the Prime Minister that she will resign appears to have generated even more political uncertainty for the Bank of England to deal with. The Bank will be thankful, then, that... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Five more years of Modi Prime Minister Modi’s BJP has secured another stunning victory in India’s general election. The key priority for Mr Modi in his second term should be to implement reforms to develop the manufacturing... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit events raise risk economy is in limbo for longer The reaction to Theresa May’s “new” Brexit deal suggests that the chances of a deal have fallen and the chances of another delay, a no deal, no Brexit and/or a general election have all risen. It’s... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Modi on the cusp of victory Exit polls signal that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP and its coalition partners in the National Democratic Alliance have won India’s election. Admittedly, exit polls have been wrong in the past, not least... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
