Latin America Economics Weekly Lenín going to the IMF, Venezuela’s crisis deepens Speculation is growing that Ecuador’s president, Lenín Moreno, will seek an IMF deal in the coming months, and history suggests that the recent rally in sovereign dollar bonds has further to run... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed likely to stick with “patient” mantra At next week’s policy meeting, the Fed is likely to reiterate its current mantra that it can be “patient” in waiting to hike interest rates. Admittedly, stock markets have recovered most of the losses... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Shutdown will lift delinquencies, but not foreclosures Households struggling to pay their mortgage thanks to the government shutdown will be offered forbearance. That won’t prevent a rise in the mortgage delinquency rate, but with back pay guaranteed it... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Parliament grabbing the wheel steers sterling higher While the vote in Parliament next Tuesday might not break the Brexit deadlock, it could give us a better steer on where the UK is headed. After all, MPs will vote on a series of amendments which could... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Peace in Mindanao and a less hawkish Fed Peace in the restive southern province of Mindanao, the second biggest island in the Philippines, could lead to big economic gains for the island itself, but is unlikely to have much impact on overall... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Brexit clouds the outlook for consumers The slump in retail sales volumes in December is not too worrying given that it seems to have largely reflected consumers bringing forward Christmas purchases in order to take advantage of ‘Black... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Uncertainty reinforces soft housing outlook Rising Brexit uncertainty only reinforces our weak outlook for the housing market. In our most likely scenario, we think transactions will dip this year before edging back up in 2020, all while house... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What now for Venezuela? The decision by the US and other governments to recognise the leader of Venezuela’s opposition Juan Guaido as president seems to have ratcheted up the pressure on the Maduro regime. Regardless of how... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to expect from the interim budget The finance ministry will be keen to include some election sweeteners in the interim budget that is due on 1st February. But it will also want to demonstrate fiscal rectitude. The most likely outcome... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Government attempts to woo SMEs Election giveaways in India have been ramped up significantly this month, with small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) the main beneficiaries. Firms with annual sales of less than INR0.4m are now... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Prime Minister’s sets out Brexit “Plan B” The Prime Minister’s “Plan B” is remarkably similar to Plan A, which Parliament rejected less than a week ago, so it doesn’t appear to change the near-term outlook for the economy. In that regard... 21st January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Brexit implications for property revisited The heavy defeat of Mrs May’s Brexit deal in Parliament means it is more likely that Article 50 will be extended. The greater uncertainty this implies will impact on both the UK economy and on... 21st January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What could we expect from a "soft" Brexit? With Prime Minister Theresa May now holding cross-party talks, the chances have risen of a “soft” Brexit, resulting in the UK retaining closer ties with the EU than her defeated deal would have... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-gloom, Brexit fears and Greek politics This week saw more evidence that the euro-zone economy has lost a lot of momentum. Meanwhile, the UK parliament rejected the EU Withdrawal Agreement, once again raising the spectre of a no deal Brexit... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swedish fiscal boost to have a limited impact Sweden’s new government has agreed to cut income taxes and relax labour laws. It has also brought an end to four months of political uncertainty, at least for now. But we suspect that all this will... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Weakness in ARS to continue, noisy Brazil data The Argentine peso has given up some of its recent gains against the dollar this week, and we expect further weakness over the coming months. Elsewhere, better-than-expected Brazilian retail sales... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
