India Economics Weekly Kashmir tensions to have limited economic impact Developments in Kashmir this week have again raised tensions between the Indian and Pakistani governments. History suggests the most likely scenario from here is that, after plenty of posturing... 8th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Little chance of a big fiscal boost from Germany German opinion polls suggest that there is a growing chance that the next federal government, which will be formed after elections due by late 2021, will be a coalition including the Green party... 6th August 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update FX manipulator label to further strain bilateral relations The US decision to label China a currency manipulator is on shaky economic grounds since, if anything, the renminbi would be even weaker than it is now without policy support. But the move is another... 6th August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update How low could the pound go? Our estimates suggest that if a no deal Brexit was fully priced into the market the pound would fall from $1.22 (€1.09) now to about $1.15 (€1.05) or a little lower. 30th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Falling profitability to weigh on investment The slowdown in domestic economic activity along with global trade tensions is becoming more of a concern for businesses in both countries. That means that sentiment has not been bolstered by the... 30th July 2019 · 10 mins read
Japan Economics Update Profit slump driven by weak demand, not rising wages The recent drop in corporate profits appears to have been driven by weak global demand rather than by rising wages. Accordingly, profits are likely to fall further over coming months even if we’re... 24th July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update New Prime Minister: Brace for turbulence Despite his hard-line stance on the campaign trail, there is no way of knowing how Boris Johnson will handle Brexit once he becomes Prime Minister tomorrow. But it’s going to be turbulent and the... 23rd July 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Surge in participation rate nearing its end The surge in the participation rate that has boosted employment by nearly a tenth since 2012 and thereby underpinned stronger economic growth is running out of steam. This will have a big impact... 22nd July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly OBR’s no deal warning, signs of life on the high street The Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) public finance forecasts in a no deal scenario published in its Fiscal Risks Report this week really do look pretty dreadful. We suspect they overdo the... 19th July 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update How credible is the asset sales target? The government’s hopes of hitting the record asset sales target that has been set in the budget for FY19/20 appear to be dependent on the smooth sale of a large stake in Air India. That seems unlikely... 17th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update New Democracy, same old problems New Democracy’s clear victory in Greece’s parliamentary elections yesterday will be welcomed by investors. But it will not be a game changer for the economy, not least because the government will... 8th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (May) Despite a slump in May, machinery orders point to broadly stable capital spending in the second quarter. Even so, we expect investment growth to slow sharply over the coming quarters. 8th July 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly A US$5trn economy by 2025? The main message from the annual Economic Survey released this week is that the government has made it a key objective to turn India into a US$5trn economy by FY24/25, from US$2.7trn currently. But... 5th July 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Pick your own Brexit forecast As long-term clients will know, we have been publishing different forecasts for the economy based on two different Brexit outcomes, “deal on 31st October” and “no deal on 31st October”. We are now... 1st July 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q2) The Tankan’s all industry index fell at a slower pace in the second quarter than in the first, which suggests that the economy may be past the worst. That said, the slowdown has started to ease... 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly The bad loan cycle is turning The RBI’s confirmation this week that the NPL ratio has dropped over the past year suggests that the government’s efforts to tidy up the banking sector are gradually having an impact. We are... 28th June 2019 · 4 mins read
