Emerging Europe Economics Weekly No-deal Brexit fears, political instability in Romania The growing likelihood of a no-deal Brexit is coming at a time when Central Europe is starting to be affected by weakness in the euro-zone and a more general slowdown in the global economy. The Czech... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update How does a Brexit deadline influence GDP growth? The surge and contraction in GDP over the first half of the year can be blamed on the original 29th March Brexit deadline. While we expect a similar pattern in Q3/Q4 due to the current 31st October... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update The EU’s new energy policy will be no game-changer The policies of the next European Commission are likely to speed up the EU’s ongoing transition towards a greener energy future. However, its impact will probably not live up to expectations. 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Further FDI reform is still likely Measures announced by the government yesterday to loosen restrictions on FDI are a welcome step and we think that further reforms aimed at attracting foreign investment are likely over the coming... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany now more vulnerable to no-deal Brexit Germany could have taken the UK’s departure from the EU in its stride a couple of years ago but it will be hit quite badly if a no-deal Brexit occurs in two months’ time. 28th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Suspending UK Parliament raises chance of no deal The Prime Minister’s decision to suspend Parliament from sometime in the second week of September until 14 th October increases the downside risks to the British economy and the pound by decreasing... 28th August 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Suspending Parliament raises the chances of no deal The Prime Minister’s decision to suspend Parliament from sometime in the second week of September until 14th October increases the downside risks to the economy and the pound by decreasing the chances... 28th August 2019 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update US tariffs strengthen the case for easing, weaker RMB With President Trump adding yet more US tariffs to the pipeline, the impact on China’s economy is starting to add up. With the drag on GDP growth set to rise to nearly one percentage point before long... 26th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Political risk back on the agenda Despite the poor global outlook, GDP growth across Emerging Asia actually picked up slightly in the second quarter, and our forecast is for a further gradual recovery over the remainder of the year... 26th August 2019 · 16 mins read
UK Economics Weekly US-UK trade deal unlikely to get off the ground We have our doubts that a US-UK trade deal, even a “modular” one, will be easily achievable if there is a no deal Brexit. In any case, the bigger issue will still be the trading relationship between... 23rd August 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Should we be worried about rising loan losses? Loan losses have remained low throughout the housing downturn but we suspect that they will pick up soon, driven by higher write-offs on corporate loans. However, loan losses tend to lag changes in... 22nd August 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s economy to shrug off political uncertainty The recent political turmoil in Peru has stoked fears about governability issues, and congressional gridlock is likely to continue in the near term. But in contrast to many other analysts, we doubt... 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s latest political drama no game-changer Hopes that Italy’s political crisis will pave the way for a more market-friendly government are likely to be disappointed. The most plausible outcome is a new general election, either later this year... 20th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update More trouble probably lies ahead for Italian bonds We think that government bonds in Italy will come under pressure again in the coming months, given the brewing political crisis there and the resulting increased uncertainty over the country’s fiscal... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Four key points on Argentina’s primary election The comprehensive victory for Alberto Fernandez in Argentina’s primary election paves the way for the return to left-wing populism that many investors fear. With a renewed focus on sovereign default... 12th August 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Potential no deal flashpoints We probably won’t know for sure if the UK is heading for a no deal Brexit until the moment it actually happens, which would be at 11.00pm on 31st October 2019. But there are a number of keys dates in... 8th August 2019 · 6 mins read
