Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia and the sanctions threat Developments in the US Senate indicate that sanctions on Russia are likely to tighten in the coming months. Historically, the introduction (or threat) of sanctions has tended to result in a long... 14th February 2019 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Update Cracks appearing in the foundations of labour market Until recently the labour market had seemed to be immune to the Brexit uncertainty which has hampered other sectors of the economy, but there are signs that Brexit is now starting to affect the labour... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Scope to stand out from the crowd Should a Brexit deal be reached within the next few months, the UK’s financial markets will probably buck the global trend with money market rates, Gilt yields and the pound all rising by more than is... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Weak business sentiment another drag on investment The relatively small bounce-back in business conditions in January suggests that the collapse in December was more than a blip. The recent deterioration in sentiment is likely to mean that business... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP First Estimate (Q4 2018) If there’s a silver lining from the mounting signs that the uncertainty caused by Brexit is holding back GDP growth, it’s that the economy could enjoy a decent rebound if a Brexit deal is agreed. 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Nigeria: Election offers chance for big policy shift On Saturday, Nigerian voters will face a choice between two radically different policy options. A win for opposition leader Atiku Abubakar would boost local markets, but he would probably struggle to... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly BoE’s change of heart might be overdone The Bank of England drove a bulldozer through its near-term projections this week as it ratcheted up the severity of Brexit uncertainty and the corresponding impact on the economy in its forecast. We... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Thai politics upended, central banks turn dovish The nomination of Princess Ubolratana Rajakanya Sirivadhana Varnavadi (sister of the current king) as a prime ministerial candidate in Thailand’s upcoming general election, has completely changed the... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Retail divergence to intensify Capital value growth is expected to fall across the board this year. However, outside of the retail sector, falls are expected to be modest. Nevertheless, given the solid outlook for economic growth... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Ramaphosa focuses on Eskom reform President Cyril Ramaphosa used a key speech yesterday to promise to reform South Africa’s state-owned utility and to pitch himself as a gradual reformer in the lead-up to a national election now set... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Eskom reforms, EFF manifesto, Nigeria faces crucial election South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s plan to split Eskom into three is a welcome sign that Pretoria is willing to consider serious, structural reforms to the troubled electricity utility. Fiscal... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s new government, Dubai’s loan rollover The formation of a new government in Lebanon has raised investors’ hopes that the dire public finances will be put on a stable footing. But we think that these will be disappointed, causing the recent... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Waiting for the handbrake to be released Brexit is a political crisis, not an economic one. While the extra uncertainty caused by Brexit has clearly hampered investment and consumption, the economy is fundamentally sound. There are still... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Jan.) The headline index of the Markit/CIPS services survey in January suggests that the slowdown which began in Q4 worsened at the start of Q1. And worries about future demand now appear to be seeping into... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy and Spain diverge, Brexit risks and Ireland At the end of last year, Italy fell back into recession but Spain’s economic growth rate accelerated. We think that this divergence will continue. Next week is a quieter one for data releases; we... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Parliament hits Brexit back to May Parliament hit the Brexit ball back into May’s court this week, leaving us with no clearer picture of how Brexit might unfold than we had this time last week. But beneath the bouncing Brexit headlines... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
