UK Economics Weekly Chances of no deal receding This week’s political developments mean that the chances of no deal have fallen, which probably justifies the jump in sterling. But the real economy is still suffering from Brexit uncertainty. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The manufacturing sector is starting to succumb to the one-two punch from Brexit and the global economic slowdown. The upshot is that there is little chance that the sector will immediately bounce... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Property prices near bubble peak, Abe gets a lifeline The LDP’s proposal to do away with term limits for the Prime Minister will make little difference to the outlook for Japan’s economy. Meanwhile, we aren’t overly worried about the continued surge in... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Limited economic and market fallout from Kashmir Developments in Kashmir this week have left tensions between the Indian and Pakistani government at their most fraught in years, but the economic and market impact of the crisis is likely to be small. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria: Buhari win sets stage for slow growth Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari’s clear win in last weekend’s election will almost certainly result in the continuation of his interventionist economic policies, which are widely seen to have... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi to extend output cuts, more protests in Algeria Fresh hints from Saudi Arabia that it will extend its oil production cuts into the second half of this year support our view that economic growth in the Kingdom will be weaker than most anticipate... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The knowns and the unknowns of Brexit This Update cuts through the Brexit quagmire by highlighting four things we now know about Brexit, four things we don’t, and four implications for the economy and the financial markets. 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Feb.) February’s weak result for house price growth shows a market struggling under the weight of Brexit uncertainty. Yet, even if a Brexit deal is reached fairly soon, we think that house price growth will... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The knowns and the unknowns of Brexit This Update cuts through the Brexit quagmire by highlighting four things we now know about Brexit, four things we don’t, and four implications for the economy and the financial markets. 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Time to worry about the crisis in Kashmir? The fall in Pakistan’s stock market today is the first sign that investors are starting to become concerned about the escalating crisis in Kashmir. The most likely outcome is that tensions are dialled... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Next suite of Brexit votes announced The sharp rise in the pound to $1.32/$ and to a two-year high of €1.16/£ this morning is due to two developments on Brexit that appear to reduce the chances of the UK leaving the EU without a deal on... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update No easy choice on no deal tariffs The Government has the unenviable choice of deciding whether households or firms should bear the brunt of higher tariffs in a no deal Brexit. It will probably opt to expose some firms to more external... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Early results point to narrow win for Buhari Results released so far suggest that Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari probably won Saturday’s election. Another term for Mr. Buhari would mean the continuation of his growth-sapping policies. 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit: A pivotal week for the economy and the pound By significantly increasing or decreasing the chances of a no deal Brexit, this week could prove pivotal for the economy and the pound. 25th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy: notes from the ground We have just returned from a day of meetings with clients and local contacts in Rome. In this Update, we summarise the key takeaways from the visit. While the banks are heading in the right direction... 25th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Algeria: protests add to headwinds facing economy The recent protests in Algeria threaten to worsen the country’s economic problems. We already expected sharp falls in the dinar and much weaker economic growth over the next couple of years, but the... 25th February 2019 · 1 min read
