UK Economics Update Meaningful vote on Johnson’s Brexit deal The decision by Parliament to essentially postpone a meaningful vote on Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal until after a delay to Brexit has been requested is a decent result for the economy and the pound as... 19th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Why India’s state elections matter for investors Upcoming state elections could help determine the pace of economic reform in India over the comingyears. A win for the BJP in Haryana could provide reassurance for state assemblies elsewhere... 18th October 2019 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Halkbank charges highlight Turkey’s banking sector risks The five-day ceasefire in Syria agreed by Turkey and the US yesterday has prompted a rally in Turkish markets and probably means that the central bank will press ahead with another large interest rate... 18th October 2019 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Parliament, over to you Last week, we said that there were two big obstacles in the pathway to a Brexit deal. With the UK and the EU having come to an agreement, one hurdle has been overcome. The second, whether Parliament... 18th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Public finances in better shape than in most countries The Conservatives are sticking to their commitment to balance the budget if elected, but over the next 18 months the party’s deficit proposals look very similar to the Liberal’s. While the high... 17th October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update UK & EU agree a Brexit deal If the Brexit deal agreed by the EU and UK earlier today passes through Parliament, then there is scope for economic growth, interest rates, gilt yields and the pound to all rise further than is... 17th October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s retail sales figures were perhaps a bit of a relief given the intense Brexit uncertainty, but were hardly a picture of strength. However, if a Brexit deal is indeed agreed soon, household... 17th October 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update How high could the pound go? If a Brexit deal is signed and ratified then sterling could rise further over the next few weeks or months, from $1.28 to $1.35 (€1.17). If interest rates were then to rise, sterling could hit $1.40 (... 16th October 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Focus Why India’s state elections matter for investors Upcoming state elections could help determine the pace of economic reform in India over the coming years. A win for the BJP in Haryana could provide reassurance for state assemblies elsewhere that... 15th October 2019 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia’s election outturn threatens policy paralysis Tunisia’s new president will face the immediate challenge of a fractured parliament and, amid what are set to be arduous coalition talks, policy paralysis is likely to set in. The country’s large... 14th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What to expect from Law and Justice’s next term The Polish Law and Justice Party’s second term in power is likely to be much less impressive than its first, marked by slower economic growth, higher inflation and a poor financial market performance. 14th October 2019 · 17 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Obstacles in the pathway to a deal, GDP slowdown looming While the mood music between the EU and the UK appears to have become more upbeat, there are still some major obstacles that may prevent a deal. After all, Parliament would have to vote for it. And... 11th October 2019 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Global Competitiveness Index gives food for thought The drop in India’s ranking in the World Economic Forum’s latest Global Competitiveness Index released this week is likely to reverse next year as reforms has been stepped up since the general... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Not confident either economy will improve Consumer and business confidence in Australia have both recently fallen to their weakest levels in years. And we now think GDP growth in New Zealand will slow to 1.5% in 2020. That’s why we think both... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey and the latest sanctions threat The prospect of Turkish military action in Syria has again raised the spectre of US sanctions. While these would probably be on the soft end of the spectrum, Turkey’s poor external position means that... 8th October 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Banking sector warnings, fiscal deficit target doubts India’s authorities have recently received plaudits for their efforts to clean up the banking sector. But news this week of a fraud scandal at the Punjab & Maharashtra Co-operative Bank (PMC Bank) is... 4th October 2019 · 4 mins read
