China Chart Pack Corporate earnings falling short of expectations The corporate earnings season currently underway in China has been disappointing. Admittedly, the Q3 results published so far point to a slight improvement in year-on-year growth in earnings per share... 30th October 2019 · 11 mins read
India Economics Focus The long-term impact of demonetisation Three years after the shock announcement that the bulk of India’s bank notes were being withdrawn, any benefits from “demonetisation” should be evident by now. But the promised gains haven’t... 30th October 2019 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Update How will the election influence the economy? A general election on 12th December may seal the fate of Brexit but could also have some other important implications. The economy and financial markets may either have to cope with a combination of a... 29th October 2019 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Parliament votes on general election Although Parliament tonight voted against holding a general election, it seems likely that MPs will soon change their minds and in the next day or two will vote for an election that will decide the... 28th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: First thoughts following Fernández win There is still a lot of uncertainty following Alberto Fernández’s widely-expected victory in Argentina’s presidential election, but one point we would stress is that a large debt write-down will... 28th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Counting the cost of the wave of protests in EMs While protests have spread across several EMs, most notably Hong Kong, parts of Latin America and Lebanon, there is no mechanical link between unrest and economic growth and asset prices. 25th October 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Johnson’s Brexit deal could allow uncertainty to linger The political benefits of Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal may also prove to be its economic downsides. If the deal is eventually passed in its current form there would effectively still be a chance of... 24th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Market stress around elections: lessons from history Governments that have been elected during episodes of severe market stress and have managed to turn things around have done so by securing some form of bailout package and announcing a credible reform... 23rd October 2019 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What would a Fernández win mean for Argentina? Left-wing Peronist Alberto Fernández is widely expected to win Sunday’s presidential election, and we think that his tenure would be marked by more accommodative policy, persistently high inflation... 23rd October 2019 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Government bond yields likely to rise Local bond yields have dropped over the past few months as the Reserve Bank has continued easing monetary policy, but we think they will start rising again before long. Fiscal policy has been loosened... 23rd October 2019 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Update Parliament votes on Johnson’s Brexit deal Tonight’s votes in Parliament on Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal suggest that Brexit will probably be delayed beyond 31 st October as they led the Prime Minister to “pause” the path to a deal. But it’s... 22nd October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update When will Johnson’s Brexit deal be done or dead? This Update analyses the key Brexit events in Parliament this week and highlights at what point we would be able to conclude that a Brexit deal is either done or dead. As such, the next week or so... 21st October 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on the protests in Chile As things stand, there are reasons to think that the protests that erupted in Chile in recent days will have a relatively small impact on the economy and financial markets. The central bank is likely... 21st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon quickly approaching a crunch point The protests in Lebanon (and policymakers’ response) underline that pushing through the austerity needed to stabilise the public finances is politically impossible. With large debt repayments due over... 21st October 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Green success to meet the realities of Swiss politics The success of environmentalist parties in yesterday’s Federal Elections in Switzerland echoes similar gains elsewhere in Europe in recent months. But given Switzerland’s consensus-based political... 21st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update When will Johnson’s Brexit deal be done or dead? This Update analyses the key Brexit events in British Parliament this week and highlights at what pointwe would be able to conclude that a Brexit deal is either done or dead. As such, the next week or... 21st October 2019 · 4 mins read
