UK Housing Market Update Election 2019: are social housebuilding plans realistic? With housebuilders already close to capacity, the sector will struggle to sustain a further surge in output. As a result, if elected, we think Labour would likely to miss their manifesto commitment to... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Hong Kong bill, GDP revisions Trump will probably sign the HK Human Rights & Democracy Act into law during the next week or two. But he may delay its implementation in order to avoid derailing the trade talks. Meanwhile, new... 22nd November 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Abe makes history, supplementary budget, 50-yr JGBs? Shinzo Abe became Japan’s longest serving Prime Minister this week but his track record on the economy is mixed. Meanwhile, the ¥10 trillion supplementary budget that the government are reportedly... 22nd November 2019 · 6 mins read
India Chart Pack Services holding up better than industry Q3 GDP data due next week are likely to show a further slowdown in India’s economy, with the industrial sector the main source of weakness. However, some comfort can be taken from the fact that the... 22nd November 2019 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Update Lessons for the UK from New Zealand’s Labour government The lessons for the UK from the election of a Labour government in New Zealand in 2017 are that businesses and financial markets will probably put more weight on policies that could restrain economic... 18th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Share buybacks are not to blame for weak investment The recent surge in stock buybacks has largely been driven by mining and financial firms and therefore can’t explain the weakness in non-mining investment. Non-mining profit growth should rebound a... 18th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s protests: growing risk of longer disruption The sharp fall in the Chilean peso today amid widespread strikes will push up inflation although, with the central bank focused more on the hit to the economy, further interest rate cuts are still... 12th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update What to expect from Sri Lanka after the election GDP growth in Sri Lanka is likely to remain weak whichever of the two main candidates wins the presidential election on Saturday. 12th November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update A Conservative election win could boost UK equities If the Conservative Party wins an outright majority in the upcoming general election on 12th December, as polls suggest is the most likely outcome, there is potentially significant upside for UK... 11th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish political impasse to drag on The prospect of further political stalemate in Spain, following yesterday’s inconclusive election result, does not alter the short-term economic outlook. But it does mean that there is little chance... 11th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Sep.) The continued fall in machinery orders suggests that the recent strength in capital goods shipments won’t last. While we expect the preliminary estimate of GDP due on Thursday to show a 1.0% q/q rise... 11th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update A Conservative election win could boost UK equities If the Conservative Party wins an outright majority in the upcoming general election on 12th December, as polls suggest is the most likely outcome, there is potentially significant upside for UK... 8th November 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Moody’s sets a very high bar Moody’s decision to cut its outlook on India’s sovereign rating is based in part on the government’s struggle to rein in the fiscal deficit. This is justifiable if a little behind the curve. But the... 8th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of the Chilean protests There is a good chance that protests caused GDP to contract in Q4. While we expect growth to strengthen by next year, the weak starting point from Q4 has prompted us to revise down our 2020 growth... 7th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Labour market begins to loosen The jump in the unemployment rate in September is evidence that the labour market has entered a loosening phase. The Bank of Japan reiterated that the output gap was its key gauge of price pressures... 7th November 2019 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s turmoil, Dubai’s property woes, Aramco IPO Continuing protests and the resignation of PM Saad Hariri have taken Lebanon closer to the brink and a sovereign debt structuring is looking inevitable. Bond spreads are likely to widen further... 31st October 2019 · 5 mins read
