Asia Economics Update Thai election result is bad news for the economy Thailand looks set for a period of political and economic uncertainty after the military and the main opposition party claimed victory in yesterday’s general election. The inconclusive result... 25th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Brexit Delay: What’s new and what’s not? The delay granted by the EU last night has pushed back Brexit by at least two weeks, from 29th March to 12th April, but four options remain on the table – deal, no deal, no Brexit or another delay. So... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit delayed, but choice of destinations remains the same The postponement of Brexit removes the risk of the UK leaving the EU without a deal next Friday. But Parliament is still facing the same four Brexit options it always has; deal, no deal, revoke... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Delay: What’s new and what’s not? The delay granted by the EU last night has pushed back Brexit by at least two weeks, from 29th March to 12th April, but four options remain on the table – deal, no deal, no Brexit or another delay. So... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Spotlight on female employment The extremely low share of women in India’s formal workforce has become a talking point in the election campaign. It has far-reaching ramifications, including by keeping the economy much smaller than... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Budget 2019 won’t drive pick-up in growth The modest increase in spending detailed in Canada’s 2019 federal budget does little to alter the economic outlook. The onus therefore remains on the Bank of Canada to support the economy. 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Wage growth weakening Major electronics firms and carmakers offered workers smaller base pay increases during this year’s spring wage negotiations than they did last year. (See Chart.) Only a small share of firms... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Next big leg up in sterling most likely after 29th March Although sterling could continue its ascent this week if PM May can get closer to squeezing her deal through Parliament, our best guess is that the next big leg up in the currency will occur after... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What does a Brexit delay mean for the UK economy? The length of any delay to Brexit beyond 29th March could have a fairly large bearing on the performance of the economy and the path taken by official interest rates. A delay of 12 months or more... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCRA measures no silver bullet, team Amlo discord Measures announced by Argentina’s central bank last night appear to have supported the peso today, but the currency will remain vulnerable to large falls, particularly as October’s presidential... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Little Brexit clarity, but at least the economy is coping well The Brexit merry-go-round continued this week, with the voting in Parliament providing little clarity on where the UK is headed and prolonging the political uncertainty weighing on the economy. Indeed... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukrainian election, signs of stimulus in Russia Pro-IMF comments this week from the front-runner in Ukraine’s presidential election race (and comedian), Volodymyr Zelenskiy, reduce the risk that this month’s vote could trigger an adverse reaction... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The implications for the economy of a delay to Brexit The length of any delay to Brexit beyond 29th March could have a fairly large bearing on the performance of the economy and the path taken by official interest rates. A delay of 12 months or more... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa slowdown, SARB, no word from Buhari Data published this week showed continued weakness in South Africa’s economy at the start of the year which, coming alongside soft inflation, may bring interest rate cuts onto the table sooner than we... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines budget deadlock, Indonesia election Economic growth in the Philippines is likely to slow unless the 2019 budget is approved soon, but the cuts the government has announced to its GDP growth forecast for this year look too severe. We... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Three takeaways from the NPC Premier Li spoke to the press at the close of the National People’s Congress (NPC) today. He offered further details on the timing and scale of policy support – smaller than in previous cycles but... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
