UK Economics Weekly Another Brexit delay looms A no deal Brexit still can’t be ruled out next Friday 12th April, but the risk has been significantly reduced by the Prime Minister asking the EU for another delay until 30th June 2019. We suspect the... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Indonesia election unlikely to lead to stronger growth Although neither candidate in Indonesia’s presidential election has unveiled policy proposals that are likely to address the long-standing constraints which are holding back growth, another term for... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What would a no-deal Brexit mean for Emerging Europe? In the event of a no-deal Brexit, we think that weaker UK import demand would probably result in Central European GDP growth in 2019-20 being 0.3-0.5%-pts weaker than in a managed Brexit scenario... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack The give and take of Brexit The uncertainty caused by Brexit is helping some parts of the economy and hindering others, but as a whole the economy isn’t doing too badly. An apparent surge in stockbuilding ahead of the original... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bouteflexit: what next for Algeria? The decision by Algeria’s President Bouteflika to step down is likely to result in a long and potentially messy transition. At the very least, economic growth will weaken and the chances of a severe... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Would a general election help or hinder? With Brexit gridlocked, the chances of a general election appear to be rising. Indeed, after the third defeat of her Brexit deal, Theresa May said that “I fear we are reaching the limits of the... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus The election and its implications for the economy The BJP appears on course to remain in power after India’s general election. But which party wins probably matters less for the economy and financial markets than whether the election delivers a... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Implications of Brexit developments and CGT changes The extension of the Brexit deadline and new capital gains tax (CGT) rules do little to change our view on the UK commercial property market. Indeed, under any Brexit scenario except no deal we still... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit: Two years on and two weeks to go The original Brexit day (29 th March) is upon us, yet the end point and the consequences for the economy and the financial markets are as unclear as ever. As the dust of this week settles, the four... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Parliament’s Third Vote on May’s Brexit Deal The rejection of May’s Brexit deal by 58 votes means with two weeks and eight hours to go until the UK is due to leave the EU there is still no clear path for Brexit itself, the economy and the... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish local elections, Russian GDP figures Concerns about Turkey’s economy and financial markets are unlikely to fade even once Sunday’s local elections are out of the way. If anything, we think that they will intensify. Meanwhile, expected... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What’s at stake in Ukraine’s presidential election? Ukraine’s presidential election this Sunday is set to be a close race but, whoever ultimately wins, it looks like the recent shift away from orthodox policymaking will continue. Dollar bond spreads... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Consumer sentiment softens, inflation risks rise The latest central bank surveys suggest that firms turned more upbeat this quarter as trade tensions eased and banks expanded lending. However, this positive shift in business sentiment has yet to... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly BJP election boost, fiscal tricks Reports that Congress has been rebuffed in its attempts to form an alliance with local parties in Uttar Pradesh would, if accurate, provide a major boost to Prime Minister Modi’s BJP ahead of next... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Running out of steam The Australian and New Zealand economies both appear to be running out of steam with growth slowing sharply in the second half of 2018. And we think the outlook is set to deteriorate further. Annual... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s economy likely to slow after general election The Spanish economy looks set to slow slightly as the effect of last year’s fiscal stimulus fades and weak growth elsewhere in the euro-zone takes a toll. That said, it will still probably be one of... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
