India Economics Weekly Vegetable prices still rising, populism risk grows RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das reiterated this week that, despite the RBI keeping rates on hold this month, the easing cycle isn’t necessarily over. But the continued rise in vegetable prices over the... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Populist shift a risk for long-run outlook The citizen amendment bill – which aims to fast-track citizenship for non-Muslims from neighbouring Muslim-majority countries – has dominated the news over the past couple of weeks. This isn’t... 18th December 2019 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Update Election eases Brexit handbrake but doesn’t release it While the majority secured by the Conservatives in the election clears the path to a Brexit deal being passed by 31 st January and fiscal policy being loosened in a Budget in February, the resulting... 13th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stimulus failing to boost confidence Business confidence should pick up before long as the global economy has turned the corner. Even so, we expect GDP growth to fall short of its potential over the coming year, which underpins our... 13th December 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update General Election Exit Poll This Update was originally sent to clients as a Rapid Response immediately after the general election exit poll was published at 10pm on 12 th December 2019. If the exit poll’s estimation that the... 12th December 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update What to watch on election night Our election preview contains detailed analysis of the potential impact of the election on the economy and markets. Here we focus on what to watch on Thursday night to get a sense of the result and... 11th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tax hike less damaging than previous ones The available data on retail sales, household spending as well as the Bank of Japan’s consumption activity index show that consumer spending fell broadly as much in October as in April 2014, when the... 11th December 2019 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: What to watch for as Fernández takes office Alberto Fernández’s government, which takes office today, will soon begin to implement its economic agenda and outline its proposals to resolve the debt crisis. This Update outlines four key things to... 10th December 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What will investors unwrap on Thursday night? The gap between the main parties in the polls suggests a Labour-led government is still plausible, but by far the most likely result of Thursday’s general election is a Conservative majority. That... 6th December 2019 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Uncertainty to linger after election and Brexit deal While a Conservative election win followed by a Brexit deal would boost the economy, the lingering uncertainty generated by Boris Johnson’s pledge not to extend the transition period beyond 2020 will... 5th December 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Deal may not mean deal While the opinion polls are increasingly suggesting that the Conservatives will win a big enough majority in the election to pass a Brexit deal by 31 st January, the Prime Minister’s plan to defy all... 29th November 2019 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Maharashtra drama a setback for reform prospects Developments this week have brought an end to the political gridlock in Maharashtra – India’s largest state by GDP – with the outcome providing a setback to longer-term reform ambitions at the... 29th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Private Capex Survey (Q3) The renewed decline in machinery and equipment investment in the third quarter is consistent with the sharpest quarterly fall in private investment in three years. And we expect private investment to... 28th November 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus The election and its implications for the economy and markets The election on 12th December is likely to mark the beginning of a new phase for the UK economy, determining not only the type of Brexit (or if Brexit happens at all) but also the size and shape of... 26th November 2019 · 19 mins read
Global Markets Update UK shareholders should worry about a Labour win The Labour Party’s manifesto contains several measures which, if implemented, would have a significant negative effect on UK equites. A surprise Labour win could send UK equities tumbling, despite a... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Would a Labour victory be a loss for the pound? A victory for Labour in the general election on 12th December would probably cause the pound to slide from $1.29/£ to around $1.20/£. But the prospect of a softer Brexit, or even no Brexit at all... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
