Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank on hold, Finland coalition talks to drag on The Riksbank is all but certain to keep its repo rate unchanged at -0.25% at its policy meeting next week. Meanwhile, coalition negotiations following last week’s election in Finland are likely to... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Technology slump bottoms out, Philippines budget A slump in electronics exports has been a key drag on economic growth across Asia in recent months, but there are tentative signs that the worst may now be over. Meanwhile, after months of delays, the... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Export strength unlikely to last Indian goods exports grew strongly in March, bucking the trend across most of Asia. But this strength is unlikely to last given a weakening of global demand and domestic capacity constraints. 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Indonesia: Jokowi will struggle to revive economy The two key economic challenges facing President Joko Widodo in his second term are boosting GDP growth and reducing Indonesia’s external vulnerabilities. We don’t think he will succeed in either. 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: Jokowi will struggle to revive economy The two key economic challenges facing President Joko Widodo in his second term are boosting GDP growth and reducing Indonesia’s external vulnerabilities. We don’t think he will succeed in either. 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Finland set for a grand coalition, eventually The success of the nationalist Finns Party in yesterday’s parliamentary election is further evidence of the increasing fragmentation in European politics, while the tight result suggests that the... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Slower growth after the election Growth in India is likely to slow as policy tightens after the general election. Even so, it should still be the best performing major emerging economy in the coming years. 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will weak investment undermine future growth? The recent Brexit-related fall in investment won’t be a big barrier to an eventual rebound in GDP growth. After all, investment hasn’t fallen by much and in the near term how efficiently capital is... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro’s first 100 days, rising regional inflation Jair Bolsonaro’s government has put forward an impressive set of plans to reform Brazil’s economy, but souring relations with congress reinforce our view that these will be diluted. Perhaps of more... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors still seem too upbeat about earnings growth As earnings season kicks off today in the US, we think that investors remain too optimistic about the global outlook for earnings per share (EPS) growth, given the prospects for the world economy... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly A look ahead to Indonesia’s election With Joko Widodo around 20%-points ahead of Prabowo Subianto in the latest opinion polls, the result of Wednesday’s presidential election in Indonesia looks like a foregone conclusion. Mainly because... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Policy restraint to limit scale of rebound We expect stimulus to shore up growth in the next few months. But with the scale of policy support smaller than in previous downturns, the sharp economic rebound that some are expecting is unlikely. 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update New Brexit deadline, new forecasts The second delay to Brexit, to 31st October 2019, and developments overseas have altered the assumptions that underpin our UK economic forecasts. As such, we have tweaked those forecasts. The main... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would happen if there was a no deal Brexit? We are not forecasting a no deal Brexit on Friday. But Brexit has a tendency to bring the unexpected and a no deal is still the default. What’s more, although it may be low risk, it would be high... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rates to fall to fresh record-lows A slowing global economy will magnify the headwinds from the housing downturn in Australia and slower net migration in New Zealand. We think that GDP growth will slow more sharply than most anticipate... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit: A guide to this week With only four full days to go until the UK is due to leave the EU at 11pm on Friday 12th April, this week is potentially crucial. Of course, it’s impossible to know with Brexit whether what looks... 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
