Latin America Chart Pack Political risks begin to crystallise The past month has seen political risks in key economies start to crystallise. The rout in Argentine markets, triggered by concerns about the dwindling re-election prospects of President Macri, has... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What would a Labor victory mean for Australia? Labor has pledged sizeable tax hikes that probably won’t be offset by higher expenditure, which means that fiscal policy will almost certainly be tighter in Australia under a Labor government than... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: market sell-off intensifies election risks The broad-based sell-off in Argentine assets over the past week or so, triggered by growing political risks, has resulted in a sharp tightening of financial conditions, which will weigh on economic... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update An ageing population won’t stop growth in its tracks An ageing population should have dragged down participation in the labour force sharply over the past decade, but falling economic inactivity, particularly amongst women, has meant that the... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Election outcome won’t end Spanish outperformance Following this weekend’s election, we suspect that Spain’s next government will tighten fiscal policy slightly, contributing to slower GDP growth over the coming years. But the country still looks set... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What does a Labor victory mean for Australia? Labor has pledged sizeable tax hikes that probably won’t be offset by higher expenditure, which means that fiscal policy will almost certainly be tighter under a Labor government than under the... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fall in borrowing, rise in inflation, local elections looming The recent rise in oil prices adds to our view that inflation is likely to be higher over the next couple of years than is widely expected. This only increases the chances that, eventually, the Bank... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly LDP’s election woes The LDP’s recent by-election defeats have generated speculation that the party may do poorly in July’s Upper House election and that the government may delay October’s sales tax hike yet again. But... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output, Egypt’s constitutional referendum US President Trump’s decision not to extend waivers on Iran’s oil exports means that Saudi Arabia is likely to raise oil production over the coming months. While this poses an upside risk to our GDP... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Stuck in the middle lane The six-month delay to Brexit until 31st October 2019 has put the brakes on interest rate hikes and left the economy travelling in the middle lane, with GDP likely to rise by 1.5% this year. But... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Six key questions about Spain’s general election Whatever government is formed after Spain’s general election, we expect it to implement a moderate fiscal tightening, causing economic growth to slow slightly. But Spain should remain one of the euro... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Surveys remain consistent with slow growth The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey showed that firms’ expectations for future sales improved only slightly at the start of the year. The future sales balance is still consistent with annual... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Apr.) The fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index for April, which was largely due to a decline in the reading for the manufacturing sector to its lowest level since 2012, is further evidence that Germany’s... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Election crosses halfway stage India’s mammoth general election that began earlier this month is now past the halfway stage. Votes have been cast in 302 out of the country’s 543 constituencies, with four days earmarked for further... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Democratic primary hints at break from past policies It is still too early to tell who will end up securing the Democratic nomination for the presidential election in 2020, but there is a good chance that the successful candidate will come from the... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Spending boost from sales tax hike to remain muted Private consumption surged ahead of the last two sales tax hikes as households brought forward spending but collapsed as soon as the tax had been raised. The data thus far suggest that consumers have... 22nd April 2019 · 1 min read
