UK Economics Update Rising chance of an extension to the Brexit transition period Brexit is clearly not a priority right now. But with negotiations shelved due to the coronavirus, it is becoming increasingly likely that the government agrees to extend the transition period beyond... 7th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone leaders argue as economy collapses Data this week provided yet more evidence that the lockdowns in place across the euro-zone have caused economic activity to collapse, forcing firms to lay off millions of workers across the region at... 3rd April 2020 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus and Yes Bank debacle dash hopes of recovery It has been a dreadful few weeks for India’s economy. This started with the release of GDP data showing that growth in Q4 slowed to its weakest pace since 2013. And hopes of a near-term recovery have... 19th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Biden’s comeback a mixed blessing for US equities In an otherwise gloomy week for US equities, the resurgence of Joe Biden in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination provides, at least at face value, one piece of good news for them. But... 4th March 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Biden the front runner again Joe Biden’s comeback to win most of the Super Tuesday states means he is now the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, and his campaign could gather further momentum in the coming days if Mike... 4th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Focus China slowdown key to commodity prices in the 2020s The structural economic slowdown which we expect in China over the coming decade will weigh heavily on consumption of industrial commodities and their prices. Steel will be by far the most affected... 3rd March 2020 · 15 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Threat from the coronavirus continues to grow We estimate GDP growth in Australia continued to muddle along in Q4, edging up from 0.4% q/q in Q3 to 0.5% q/q. In New Zealand, we think a stronger contribution from net trade was offset by a decline... 26th February 2020 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Update Political crisis bad news for Malaysia’s economy The political turmoil that has engulfed Malaysia is likely to undermine the government’s response to the coronavirus crisis and could also set back the progress the country has made in tackling... 24th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly The fiscal response, political worries in Thailand The policy response to the coronavirus outbreak has so far been led by the region’s central banks, but governments are also now stepping up to the plate. Earlier this week, Singapore unveiled a budget... 21st February 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Three key questions on the Vodafone dispute The Supreme Court’s ruling that Vodafone’s joint venture in India must pay up to US$7bn in retrospective levies and penalties has grabbed headlines over the past few days. In this Update, we answer... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump reshaping the Fed from the outside Judy Shelton’s rocky Senate nomination hearing this week means that President Donald Trump’s efforts to reshape the Fed from the outside could yet fail at the first hurdle. But the dovish Christopher... 14th February 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Change of Chancellor increases upsides for economy We had already been expecting fiscal policy to provide a decent boost to economic growth over the next couple of years, but the changing of the Chancellor this week means that boost could turn out to... 14th February 2020 · 10 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Ramaphosa goes slow and steady President Cyril Ramaphosa’s State of the Nation Address contained a few promising announcements, relating to independent power firms. But his continued stress on the need for consensus strengthened... 14th February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly BJP policy shift unlikely despite Delhi election loss The chastening defeat for the BJP in the Delhi Union Territory election has been viewed by some as a backlash against its recent policies including the passage of controversial Citizenship Amendment... 14th February 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Rishi Sunak replaces Sajid Javid as Chancellor This Update was originally sent to clients as a Rapid Response immediately after the announcement that Sajid Javid was being replaced as Chancellor by Rishi Sunak at 12pm on 13th February 2020. The... 13th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ireland’s election throws up longer-term risks Ireland’ general election result does not change our view on the near-term outlook for the economy, which should maintain a decent pace this year and next. But it does raise questions about the longer... 10th February 2020 · 3 mins read
