Japan Economics Update Is the trade war impacting Japanese FDI? While there is growing anecdotal evidence of some Japanese firms shifting production of US-bound goods from China to Southeast Asia, the large size of China’s domestic market means that China will... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Who is winning the trade war? With the trade war between the US and China continuing to escalate, a clear winner is starting to emerge: Vietnam. Since around the middle of last year, Vietnam’s exports to the US have shot up by... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Prime Minister May falls, CPI inflation rises The announcement by the Prime Minister that she will resign appears to have generated even more political uncertainty for the Bank of England to deal with. The Bank will be thankful, then, that... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Five more years of Modi Prime Minister Modi’s BJP has secured another stunning victory in India’s general election. The key priority for Mr Modi in his second term should be to implement reforms to develop the manufacturing... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit events raise risk economy is in limbo for longer The reaction to Theresa May’s “new” Brexit deal suggests that the chances of a deal have fallen and the chances of another delay, a no deal, no Brexit and/or a general election have all risen. It’s... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Modi on the cusp of victory Exit polls signal that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP and its coalition partners in the National Democratic Alliance have won India’s election. Admittedly, exit polls have been wrong in the past, not least... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Populists unlikely to rattle markets at EU elections We suspect that the European Parliament (EP) elections will not cause much reaction on bond markets, even if populist parties perform even better than expected. Recent elections in the EU suggest that... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: CFK shakes up the election The decision by populist and anti-IMF former president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, to run for vice president in October’s election (with a more moderate Peronist at the top of the ticket) has... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What does the Coalition victory mean for Australia? The Coalition government’s surprise victory in the Australian federal election won’t make much of a difference for fiscal policy in the near-term but will result in smaller surpluses beyond 2022. It... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Dire Brazil data, tensions brewing in Argentina Data released this week all-but-confirm that Brazilian GDP contracted in Q1 and it looks touch and go as to whether the economy entered a technical recession in Q2. Another fall in output this quarter... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit sabbatical drawing to a close If you have been enjoying the respite from incessant Brexit headlines over the past few weeks, I’m afraid it’s bad news. This week’s fall in the pound to a three-month low of $1.28 reflects Brexit... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Bankruptcy code is finding its feet Three years to the week that it was ratified, India’s bankruptcy code is now making a significant difference to the speed at which bankruptcy cases are resolved and the amount that creditors are able... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What might trigger a hard landing? Structural headwinds will weigh on China’s growth rate over the coming decade. If well managed, this slowdown will be gradual. But a more abrupt adjustment shouldn’t be ruled out. We see two main... 16th May 2019 · 28 mins read
Energy Update China’s tariff is a major setback for US LNG China’s decision to raise its tariff on US LNG imports from 10% to 25% from 1st June effectively rules the US out of the world’s second-largest, and fastest-growing, market. It will also weigh on spot... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: elections bode poorly for long-run outlook The strong performance by Duterte’s supporters in the midterm elections should lead to further progress on pushing through economic reforms. However, the results will do little to stop the country’s... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Tariffs remain a big risk for the DAX Although equities in the euro-zone have fallen sharply in the past week as the US-China trade dispute has flared up again, they are still much higher than they were at the start of the year. This... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
