Asia Economic Outlook A multi-speed recovery, with China leading the way Overview Economic activity is rebounding across the region, but the speed of the recovery varies significantly by country. Daily life in China, Vietnam and Taiwan has already returned largely to... 15th July 2020 · 35 mins read
UK Economics Update OBR’s fiscal warnings can be ignored…for now The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) today sent a clear message to the government that regardless of the speed of the recovery, the government debt to GDP ratio is on an unsustainable path. Even... 14th July 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly China push back, food handouts ramped up Measures taken by Indian authorities this week suggest that India is decoupling politically but also economically from China and potentially integrating more with Asia’s other democracies or the US... 3rd July 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Chance of Democratic landslide increases risk to US equities The rising odds of a Democratic landslide in November’s US election could become an increasingly important factor for US equities in the second half of the year. 1st July 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Update End of Abenomics in name only when PM steps down The chances of PM Abe serving a fourth term as LDP leader have fallen considerably in recent months. Instead, speculation has turned to whether Mr Abe will be able to hang on as Prime Minister for the... 1st July 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economies coming roaring back Restrictions on activity have lifted in both countries. While some states in Australia still limit the size of groups and capacity at restaurants, New Zealand has now lifted all domestic restrictions... 30th June 2020 · 10 mins read
Global Economics Focus Lasting blow to supply capacity is not inevitable It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government... 29th June 2020 · 28 mins read
Long Run Focus Lasting blow to supply capacity is not inevitable It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government... 29th June 2020 · 28 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update A look at Australia’s corporate balance sheets We estimate that the revenues of firms in most sectors were still too low in mid-June to generate profits. If those conditions persisted, nearly one-third of firms would run out of cash by the end of... 25th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Focus Victory for the Democrats could hold back US equities The odds that Joe Biden wins this year’s US presidential election, and that the Democrats also win full control of Congress, have risen recently. While we expect US equities to fare reasonably well... 22nd June 2020 · 16 mins read
Capital Daily US election could weigh on equities in the second half of 2020 While we have been sceptical of the argument that shifts in the perceived likelihood of different outcomes in the upcoming US elections have been a major driver of US equity markets this year, that... 22nd June 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update BJP building its political strength Recent developments have strengthened the ruling BJP’s hand in the Rajya Sabha (the upper house of parliament). This should help to ease the passage of economic reforms, provided that the BJP has the... 22nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Sino-Indian relations worsen, local lockdowns loom We can only hope that border tensions between India and China ease soon and there is no direct economic impact. But there may be indirect consequences. A further push back against Chinese investment... 19th June 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Biden edges ahead in election race A lot could still change over the next five months but, as things stand, Joe Biden appears to be the favourite to win November’s presidential election. Biden’s policies are more moderate than some of... 17th June 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Reforms through the back door Prime Minister Modi’s BJP has expedited structural reforms that normally face stiff political resistance, ostensibly as part of efforts to support recovery from the coronavirus crisis. These moves... 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Reforms through the back door in India Prime Minister Modi’s BJP has expedited structural reforms that normally face stiff political resistance, ostensibly as part of efforts to support recovery from the coronavirus crisis. These moves... 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
