Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Kuwait’s new Emir faces tough challenges The passing of Kuwaiti’s Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah has raised some concerns over political stability in the country, and, while the transition will probably prove to be smooth, the new Emir... 29th September 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Progress on labour reform, modest MSP hikes The three labour reform bills approved in parliament this week will do little to boost the slumping economy in the near term but, if the virus is successfully contained, these measures could deliver... 25th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Unpacking Suganomics Japan’s incoming Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide has said he will “inherit Abenomics” and has been keen to emphasise that not much will change. As such, a major shift in economic policy is not on the... 15th September 2020 · 17 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Four questions on Peru’s (latest) political crisis Votes due this week by Peru’s congress on whether to impeach the president and to censure (remove) the finance minister will likely be close calls and could leave a power vacuum. That said, history... 14th September 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Brexit is back The financial markets have woken up with a bang to the possibility that the Brexit transition period ends on 31st December without a deal. That could set back the UK’s economic recovery from the... 10th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Resilience in Australia’s corporate profits unlikely to last The surge in corporate profits in Q2 happened despite a large drop in sales and mostly reflects the impact of the JobKeeper wage subsidy. With that subsidy being scaled back, corporate profits should... 31st August 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Surprising sterling resilience to Brexit unlikely to last Despite the news that the latest round of UK-EU Brexit negotiations ended in deadlock last Friday, sterling has remained remarkably stable. This suggests that while there may be some small upside for... 27th August 2020 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Recent stimulus has set back domestic rebalancing The consumption share of GDP had edged up in recent years, but that progress has been reversed by the COVID-19 stimulus response, which has focused on boosting investment. The consumption share should... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Lockdown fatigue is making restrictions less effective In Australia, the lockdown in Melbourne in July was of similar intensity to the initial lockdown in April. Even so, retail sales only fell by 2% m/m in Victoria which still left them around 2% above... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Private Capex Survey (Q2) Both machinery and equipment investment as well as construction investment fell less than we had anticipated in Q2 which suggests that the contraction in GDP wasn’t as deep as we thought. 27th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Low interest rates will be the new normal in Russia The neutral interest rate has become one of the hot topics in Russian monetary policy over the past year and the downward revision to the central bank’s estimate of the neutral rate in July marks the... 26th August 2020 · 24 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Second wave unlikely to completely derail recoveries Having been among the fastest in the world at controlling the initial outbreak, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Korea are all at different stages of a second wave of infections. With new infections in Hong... 26th August 2020 · 14 mins read
China Economics Weekly The Phase One trade deal is on borrowed time Next week’s semi-annual review of the Phase One trade deal will likely be a sobering affair given China’s limited progress toward meeting its purchase commitments. While both sides appear content to... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: what does election mean for the economy? The landslide victory by Sri Lanka People’s Party (SLPP) will allow incumbent President Rajapaksa to consolidate power. This is likely to lead to an increase in corruption and nepotism and will also... 7th August 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Debt moratorium extension, shifting geopolitical sands The likely extension of the RBI’s debt moratorium will help smooth near-term cash flow issues for firms and households but, in the absence of additional financial support from the government, this won... 24th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Central Europe to drive a solid recovery The economies of Emerging Europe are set to bounce back more strongly from the coronavirus crisis than those in many other parts of the world. Central Europe will lead the recovery. Governments have... 22nd July 2020 · 28 mins read
