Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Should we be worried about rising loan losses? Loan losses have remained low throughout the housing downturn but we suspect that they will pick up soon, driven by higher write-offs on corporate loans. However, loan losses tend to lag changes in... 22nd August 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s economy to shrug off political uncertainty The recent political turmoil in Peru has stoked fears about governability issues, and congressional gridlock is likely to continue in the near term. But in contrast to many other analysts, we doubt... 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s latest political drama no game-changer Hopes that Italy’s political crisis will pave the way for a more market-friendly government are likely to be disappointed. The most plausible outcome is a new general election, either later this year... 20th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update More trouble probably lies ahead for Italian bonds We think that government bonds in Italy will come under pressure again in the coming months, given the brewing political crisis there and the resulting increased uncertainty over the country’s fiscal... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Four key points on Argentina’s primary election The comprehensive victory for Alberto Fernandez in Argentina’s primary election paves the way for the return to left-wing populism that many investors fear. With a renewed focus on sovereign default... 12th August 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Potential no deal flashpoints We probably won’t know for sure if the UK is heading for a no deal Brexit until the moment it actually happens, which would be at 11.00pm on 31st October 2019. But there are a number of keys dates in... 8th August 2019 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Kashmir tensions to have limited economic impact Developments in Kashmir this week have again raised tensions between the Indian and Pakistani governments. History suggests the most likely scenario from here is that, after plenty of posturing... 8th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Little chance of a big fiscal boost from Germany German opinion polls suggest that there is a growing chance that the next federal government, which will be formed after elections due by late 2021, will be a coalition including the Green party... 6th August 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update FX manipulator label to further strain bilateral relations The US decision to label China a currency manipulator is on shaky economic grounds since, if anything, the renminbi would be even weaker than it is now without policy support. But the move is another... 6th August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update How low could the pound go? Our estimates suggest that if a no deal Brexit was fully priced into the market the pound would fall from $1.22 (€1.09) now to about $1.15 (€1.05) or a little lower. 30th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Falling profitability to weigh on investment The slowdown in domestic economic activity along with global trade tensions is becoming more of a concern for businesses in both countries. That means that sentiment has not been bolstered by the... 30th July 2019 · 10 mins read
Japan Economics Update Profit slump driven by weak demand, not rising wages The recent drop in corporate profits appears to have been driven by weak global demand rather than by rising wages. Accordingly, profits are likely to fall further over coming months even if we’re... 24th July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update New Prime Minister: Brace for turbulence Despite his hard-line stance on the campaign trail, there is no way of knowing how Boris Johnson will handle Brexit once he becomes Prime Minister tomorrow. But it’s going to be turbulent and the... 23rd July 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Surge in participation rate nearing its end The surge in the participation rate that has boosted employment by nearly a tenth since 2012 and thereby underpinned stronger economic growth is running out of steam. This will have a big impact... 22nd July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly OBR’s no deal warning, signs of life on the high street The Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) public finance forecasts in a no deal scenario published in its Fiscal Risks Report this week really do look pretty dreadful. We suspect they overdo the... 19th July 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update How credible is the asset sales target? The government’s hopes of hitting the record asset sales target that has been set in the budget for FY19/20 appear to be dependent on the smooth sale of a large stake in Air India. That seems unlikely... 17th July 2019 · 3 mins read
