Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jul.) The drop in machinery orders in July didn’t reverse the jump in June and we still think that business investment rose at a strong pace in Q3. However, a renewed fall after October’s sales tax hike is... 12th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Trump may not like negative rates in practice President Donald Trump’s call for the Fed to slash interest rates to zero or “less”, so that the Treasury can lock-in low borrowing costs for the very long term, sounds appealing in a sustained low... 11th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Crisis still has potential to spill beyond Hong Kong Yesterday’s announcement by Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam that the government will withdraw the controversial extradition bill that sparked the current political crisis has raised hopes that... 5th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update What will a M5S-PD government mean for Italy? The formation of a coalition between the Five Star Movement and the Democratic Party reduces the risk of a renewed clash with the EU over fiscal policy, but it does not dramatically alter the economic... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Key points on the next general election If Parliament moves to rule out a no deal Brexit this week, a general election seems on the cards either before or after a delay to Brexit. With the Conservatives ahead in the polls, a no-deal Brexit... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update What to watch as Parliament returns with a bang The events in Parliament over the next week and a half will be crucial in determining whether Brexit will be delayed beyond 31st October, whether there’s an election or whether there is a big step up... 2nd September 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly No-deal Brexit fears, political instability in Romania The growing likelihood of a no-deal Brexit is coming at a time when Central Europe is starting to be affected by weakness in the euro-zone and a more general slowdown in the global economy. The Czech... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update How does a Brexit deadline influence GDP growth? The surge and contraction in GDP over the first half of the year can be blamed on the original 29th March Brexit deadline. While we expect a similar pattern in Q3/Q4 due to the current 31st October... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update The EU’s new energy policy will be no game-changer The policies of the next European Commission are likely to speed up the EU’s ongoing transition towards a greener energy future. However, its impact will probably not live up to expectations. 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Further FDI reform is still likely Measures announced by the government yesterday to loosen restrictions on FDI are a welcome step and we think that further reforms aimed at attracting foreign investment are likely over the coming... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany now more vulnerable to no-deal Brexit Germany could have taken the UK’s departure from the EU in its stride a couple of years ago but it will be hit quite badly if a no-deal Brexit occurs in two months’ time. 28th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Suspending UK Parliament raises chance of no deal The Prime Minister’s decision to suspend Parliament from sometime in the second week of September until 14 th October increases the downside risks to the British economy and the pound by decreasing... 28th August 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Suspending Parliament raises the chances of no deal The Prime Minister’s decision to suspend Parliament from sometime in the second week of September until 14th October increases the downside risks to the economy and the pound by decreasing the chances... 28th August 2019 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update US tariffs strengthen the case for easing, weaker RMB With President Trump adding yet more US tariffs to the pipeline, the impact on China’s economy is starting to add up. With the drag on GDP growth set to rise to nearly one percentage point before long... 26th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Political risk back on the agenda Despite the poor global outlook, GDP growth across Emerging Asia actually picked up slightly in the second quarter, and our forecast is for a further gradual recovery over the remainder of the year... 26th August 2019 · 16 mins read
UK Economics Weekly US-UK trade deal unlikely to get off the ground We have our doubts that a US-UK trade deal, even a “modular” one, will be easily achievable if there is a no deal Brexit. In any case, the bigger issue will still be the trading relationship between... 23rd August 2019 · 4 mins read
