Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Strong recovery suffers a setback Fresh virus outbreaks and tighter containment measures mean that the economies of Emerging Europe are likely to suffer a fresh downturn in Q4, but we still think that the region will bounce back more... 22nd October 2020 · 28 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The US election and its impact on emerging markets Whatever the outcome of the US election, we expect that the trends of US-China decoupling and deglobalisation will continue. The election result could be pivotal for some EMs: a Joe Biden victory... 16th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Huge policy support paves way for strong recovery Australia and New Zealand have had far greater success in containing the virus than most other large advanced economies. Coupled with huge fiscal support, that means that the recovery in economic... 15th October 2020 · 24 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thai protests a key risk to the recovery The renewed risk of domestic political unrest in Thailand following the declaration of a “severe” state of emergency could act as a further drag on the already beleaguered economy. 15th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Long Run Focus The role of the state in the post-pandemic world The state has taken on a much greater role in G7 countries during the pandemic and there is no guarantee that it will relinquish all its new powers when the coronavirus threat fades. The pandemic... 13th October 2020 · 23 mins read
Global Economics Focus The role of the state in the post-pandemic world The state has taken on a much greater role in G7 countries during the pandemic and there is no guarantee that it will relinquish all its new powers when the coronavirus threat fades. The pandemic... 13th October 2020 · 23 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Rising labour costs to prevent slump in inflation Inflation has held up better than we had anticipated in recent months. The surge in spare capacity suggests that it could weaken more sharply as social distancing measures are relaxed. But we only... 12th October 2020 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey and the effects of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh has created yet another schism in Turkey’s relations with the US, the EU and Russia. It may only take a misstep... 8th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Central banks to resume easing cycles soon With the virus under control in most of the region, Emerging Asia is bouncing back from the crisis faster than other parts of the world. But the pace of recovery is uneven. China is leading the way... 8th October 2020 · 36 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Recovery could surprise to the upside Japan’s success in containing the virus without imposing draconian restrictions on activity should enable a faster return to pre-virus levels of output than in many major economies. We expect GDP to... 8th October 2020 · 21 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s reform progress: a stock take Policymakers in Nigeria are taking steps in the right direction with recent market-friendly reforms, from liberalizing petrol prices to moves towards exchange rate unification. But the government hasn... 7th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Long Run Update Deglobalisation to continue whoever wins US election With the US election result likely to have limited near-term implications for world GDP, the main issue for the global economy is how it affects US trade policy. Joe Biden would take a less aggressive... 5th October 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit deal or no deal gulf narrows UK-EU relations deteriorated on one front this week, with the EU starting legal proceedings over the UK’s plans to undermine parts of the Withdrawal Agreement, but improved on another as negotiations... 2nd October 2020 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Suga showing his true colours, recovery on track The decision by state-owned Nippon Telegraph & Telephone to take full ownership of its mobile phone arm seems to reflect pressure by new PM Suga. While Mr Abe tried to make companies more accountable... 2nd October 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Focus Brexit – deal or no deal is not the big issue As the differences between a Brexit deal and a no deal are not as big as they once were, the economic costs of a no deal have diminished. The bigger risk is that relations between the UK and the EU... 1st October 2020 · 44 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Victoria restrictions didn’t hit as hard as initially feared The surge in case numbers due to the second wave in Melbourne has been brought under control with new daily cases falling back towards zero. Heavy restrictions on activity still remain in place in... 30th September 2020 · 10 mins read
