Emerging Europe Economics Focus What to expect from Law and Justice’s next term The Polish Law and Justice Party’s second term in power is likely to be much less impressive than its first, marked by slower economic growth, higher inflation and a poor financial market performance. 14th October 2019 · 17 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Obstacles in the pathway to a deal, GDP slowdown looming While the mood music between the EU and the UK appears to have become more upbeat, there are still some major obstacles that may prevent a deal. After all, Parliament would have to vote for it. And... 11th October 2019 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Global Competitiveness Index gives food for thought The drop in India’s ranking in the World Economic Forum’s latest Global Competitiveness Index released this week is likely to reverse next year as reforms has been stepped up since the general... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Not confident either economy will improve Consumer and business confidence in Australia have both recently fallen to their weakest levels in years. And we now think GDP growth in New Zealand will slow to 1.5% in 2020. That’s why we think both... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey and the latest sanctions threat The prospect of Turkish military action in Syria has again raised the spectre of US sanctions. While these would probably be on the soft end of the spectrum, Turkey’s poor external position means that... 8th October 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Banking sector warnings, fiscal deficit target doubts India’s authorities have recently received plaudits for their efforts to clean up the banking sector. But news this week of a fraud scandal at the Punjab & Maharashtra Co-operative Bank (PMC Bank) is... 4th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: pension reform faces difficult final stretch Worsening relations between the Brazilian presidency and legislature threaten to delay the much-vaunted pension bill and will keep markets on tenterhooks in the coming weeks. It still looks like the... 3rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update The gap between our no deal numbers and the BoE’s When put on a like-for-like basis, the Bank of England’s assumptions for how weak the economy would be in the 12 months after a no deal Brexit are not that different to our own. And both we and the... 3rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru in good position to weather political crisis The dissolution of congress by President Martin Vizcarra and his heated stand-off with the opposition will likely cause a sell-off in markets and further political gridlock. But as things stand, we... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Sep.) The renewed fall in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) adds to the evidence that the region’s economy slowed further in Q3. For now, the weakness is concentrated in the manufacturing... 27th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Unlawful suspension of UK Parliament trims no deal risk The ruling by the Supreme Court in the UK that the Prime Minister’s decision to prorogue Parliament was “unlawful, void and of no effect” and that the suspension should be “quashed” as soon as... 24th September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Unlawful suspension of Parliament trims no deal risk The ruling by the Supreme Court that the Prime Minister’s decision to prorogue Parliament was “unlawful, void and of no effect” and that the suspension should be “quashed” as soon as possible... 24th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: protests and the economic impact Protests in Egypt over the past few days have ignited concerns that the country is on the cusp of another period of political upheaval. Past experience suggests that this would be disruptive for the... 23rd September 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Weak export growth to persist New tax breaks announced by the government and the recent weakness of the rupee will do little to support India’s exporters, who will find it hard to capitalise given subdued global demand and... 20th September 2019 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Reigniting reforms The latest activity data for India have been disappointing but, despite the economy’s recent soft patch, developments over the past month should boost optimism over long-run prospects. In late August... 19th September 2019 · 9 mins read
India Economics Focus A US$5trn economy by 2025? Since securing re-election this year, the Modi government has made it a formal aim to almost double the size of India’s economy to US$5trn by March 2025. In our view, the government is likely to fall... 17th September 2019 · 11 mins read
