UK Economics Update Five often missed points on Brexit Brexit is going to get a lot of airtime over the next few hours, days and weeks, especially once the outcome of the call between Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen later this afternoon is made... 7th December 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Will they won't they? The Brexit negotiations may finally come to a head this week before the next EU summit on Thursday 10 th December. We still think that a deal is more likely than not and with the pound already at our... 4th December 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit: will they won't they? The Brexit negotiations may finally come to a head this week before the next EU summit on Thursday 10 th December. We still think that a deal is more likely than not and with the pound already at our... 4th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Government plans investment of up to 4.3% of GDP The government announced today that it expects to spend an additional $50bn this fiscal year to combat the damage from the second wave of the coronavirus. It also laid out plans for an investment... 30th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Labour markets prove resilient We have been arguing for some time that the unemployment rate would not rise as much as most believed in either Australia or New Zealand. We remain confident in those forecasts. Admittedly, the... 30th November 2020 · 11 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The rise in CPI inflation from 0.5% in September to 0.7% in October shows that inflation is well past its crisis low point of 0.2%. But while it will rise more significantly from next April, we doubt... 18th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Only light-touch restrictions on horizon for now Japan is in the midst of a third wave of COVID-19. Daily infections have already reached their previous early-August peak. Only the Hokkaido Government has responded with countermeasures so far... 17th November 2020 · 10 mins read
US Economics Focus Pandemic increases risk of high inflation The pandemic has increased the odds that the US will eventually experience a period of high inflation, principally because we expect the Fed to be less committed to ensuring price stability in the... 16th November 2020 · 32 mins read
Long Run Focus Pandemic increases risk of high inflation The pandemic has increased the odds that the US will eventually experience a period of high inflation, principally because we expect the Fed to be less committed to ensuring price stability in the... 16th November 2020 · 33 mins read
India Economics Update Bihar election result boosts reform prospects The BJP’s relatively strong performance in the state election in Bihar suggests that goodwill for the ruling national party remains intact amid India’s largest recession in modern history. Bihar has... 11th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian economy to contract in Q4 Italy’s new tiered COVID-19 restrictions are likely to cause GDP to fall by about 2.5% q/q in Q4, and there is a risk that government is forced into a more severe national lockdown. That said, the... 9th November 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update What to expect from a Biden presidency Much of President-elect Joe Biden’s agenda will be dead on arrival with the Republicans maintaining control of the Senate, but there is still a chance of more fiscal stimulus being passed, albeit... 7th November 2020 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Biden presidency, food inflation, interest waiver We wouldn't rule out a Joe Biden administration taking a more collaborative approach to containing China's geopolitical influence than Donald Trump, which could help strengthen ties between the US and... 6th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack On the road to recovery As restrictions have been lifted in both countries, activity has rebounded. Admittedly, the second draconian lockdown in Victoria will hold back the recovery in GDP in Australia in Q3 and Q4. But we... 29th October 2020 · 11 mins read
US Housing Market Update Jump in asking rents points to move away from cities Despite issues with sampling due to COVID-19, the third quarter HVS survey did provide some interesting information on the impact of the virus. A surge in median asking rents was caused by a jump in... 28th October 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bihar election could revitalise reforms The state election in Bihar due to start next week will be the first of any sort since the outbreak of COVID-19 in India, and a strong performance from the BJP would suggest that goodwill for the... 23rd October 2020 · 4 mins read
