UK Economics Update Parliament votes on Johnson’s Brexit deal Tonight’s votes in Parliament on Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal suggest that Brexit will probably be delayed beyond 31 st October as they led the Prime Minister to “pause” the path to a deal. But it’s... 22nd October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update When will Johnson’s Brexit deal be done or dead? This Update analyses the key Brexit events in Parliament this week and highlights at what point we would be able to conclude that a Brexit deal is either done or dead. As such, the next week or so... 21st October 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on the protests in Chile As things stand, there are reasons to think that the protests that erupted in Chile in recent days will have a relatively small impact on the economy and financial markets. The central bank is likely... 21st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon quickly approaching a crunch point The protests in Lebanon (and policymakers’ response) underline that pushing through the austerity needed to stabilise the public finances is politically impossible. With large debt repayments due over... 21st October 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Green success to meet the realities of Swiss politics The success of environmentalist parties in yesterday’s Federal Elections in Switzerland echoes similar gains elsewhere in Europe in recent months. But given Switzerland’s consensus-based political... 21st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update When will Johnson’s Brexit deal be done or dead? This Update analyses the key Brexit events in British Parliament this week and highlights at what pointwe would be able to conclude that a Brexit deal is either done or dead. As such, the next week or... 21st October 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Meaningful vote on Johnson’s Brexit deal The decision by Parliament to essentially postpone a meaningful vote on Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal until after a delay to Brexit has been requested is a decent result for the economy and the pound as... 19th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Why India’s state elections matter for investors Upcoming state elections could help determine the pace of economic reform in India over the comingyears. A win for the BJP in Haryana could provide reassurance for state assemblies elsewhere... 18th October 2019 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Halkbank charges highlight Turkey’s banking sector risks The five-day ceasefire in Syria agreed by Turkey and the US yesterday has prompted a rally in Turkish markets and probably means that the central bank will press ahead with another large interest rate... 18th October 2019 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Parliament, over to you Last week, we said that there were two big obstacles in the pathway to a Brexit deal. With the UK and the EU having come to an agreement, one hurdle has been overcome. The second, whether Parliament... 18th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Public finances in better shape than in most countries The Conservatives are sticking to their commitment to balance the budget if elected, but over the next 18 months the party’s deficit proposals look very similar to the Liberal’s. While the high... 17th October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update UK & EU agree a Brexit deal If the Brexit deal agreed by the EU and UK earlier today passes through Parliament, then there is scope for economic growth, interest rates, gilt yields and the pound to all rise further than is... 17th October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s retail sales figures were perhaps a bit of a relief given the intense Brexit uncertainty, but were hardly a picture of strength. However, if a Brexit deal is indeed agreed soon, household... 17th October 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update How high could the pound go? If a Brexit deal is signed and ratified then sterling could rise further over the next few weeks or months, from $1.28 to $1.35 (€1.17). If interest rates were then to rise, sterling could hit $1.40 (... 16th October 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Focus Why India’s state elections matter for investors Upcoming state elections could help determine the pace of economic reform in India over the coming years. A win for the BJP in Haryana could provide reassurance for state assemblies elsewhere that... 15th October 2019 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia’s election outturn threatens policy paralysis Tunisia’s new president will face the immediate challenge of a fractured parliament and, amid what are set to be arduous coalition talks, policy paralysis is likely to set in. The country’s large... 14th October 2019 · 3 mins read
