UK Economics Update

Labour wins election: Some upside to GDP, inflation and rates

The big shift in the political landscape that has delivered the first Labour government since May 2010 is unlikely to lead to anything like as big a shift in the economic landscape. But at the margin...

5th July 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Exit Polls: Labour win would create some upside to our GDP, inflation and rate forecasts

The big shift in the political landscape that appears to be delivering a Labour government with a large majority is unlikely to lead to anything like as big a shift in the economic landscape. But at...

4th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle, PMIs, Oman income tax

Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle gave the government a facelift, but it doesn’t look like there will be any U-turns on policymaking – and particularly the fiscal consolidation path. Meanwhile, the batch of...

4th July 2024 · 8 mins read

US Economics Update

Trump's lead creates conundrum for our forecasts

Following his disastrous debate performance last week, President Joe Biden’s odds of getting re-elected have gone from bad to worse. Former President Donald Trump is now unequivocally the favourite to...

3rd July 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Egypt needs to stick to frugality to ease debt fears

Egypt’s government faces a likely further rise in debt servicing costs over the coming year. But the good news is that the budget for the 2024/25 fiscal year (which started this week) reaffirmed the...

3rd July 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

French election first-round relief rally might not last

Investors have welcomed the broadly unsurprising results of the first round of the French legislative elections, but the discount on French financial assets is still there and, in our view, likely to...

1st July 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Germany no longer immune to budget trouble

Much of the recent focus has been on France’s political turmoil, but Germany has had its own troubles with disagreement over the 2025 budget threatening the survival of the governing coalition. While...

1st July 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia and the possible implications of MbS as king

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MbS) ultimate succession to become king is inevitable and a formality. Having been the de-facto leader of the Kingdom for several years it may not...

1st July 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Update

First round results of France’s parliamentary election

The preliminary results of the first round of voting are broadly in line with the final opinion polls, showing that Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition has lost out to both the left and right. But a...

30th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

Investors appear unfazed by odds favouring Trump

Incumbent President Biden’s uneven performance during the debate yesterday with his predecessor and challenger, Donald Trump, has reduced Biden’s perceived chance of winning re-election significantly...

28th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Bolivia’s coup attempt, Lula attacks the BCB

The coup attempt in Bolivia this week shouldn’t be read as a warning sign for other Latin American countries. But it does shine a spotlight on institutional fragility in the region – as evidenced by...

28th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Three scenarios for after the French election

With France heading to the polls on Sunday for the first round of the legislative election, the latest polls show a small uptick in support for the National Rally (RN) and French bond spreads have...

28th June 2024 · 10 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA coalition cracks, Kenya protests, Ghana debt deal

Disagreements between the South Africa’s largest party, the ANC, and its main partner in the government of national unity, the DA, over cabinet posts reinforces our point that the coalition is fragile...

28th June 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

A beacon of economic and political stability?

While we don’t expect Labour to rush to deviate from its manifesto if, as the polls suggest, it wins next week’s general election, the market reaction to the upcoming French election reinforces the...

28th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Focus

The US election and EMs

Under a second Trump administration, the imposition of large tariffs on China would hurts its economy but could speed up investment in manufacturing capacity elsewhere. However, a broader global...

28th June 2024 · 7 mins read