UK Economics Weekly Does rising corporate borrowing point to stronger investment? The latest business investment figures were undeniably disappointing, with quarterly growth flat-lining in Q2. But this week’s money and credit figures, which showed another strong rise in net finance... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: limited market fallout from Otkritie turmoil The uncertainty about how troubles at Otkritie might play out initially pushed up interbank interest rates in Russia, but the Central Bank (CBR) quickly snuffed out the rise using its open market... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jul.) July’s household borrowing figures should help to assuage fears that the housing market slowdown is worsening, while cooling consumer credit growth will be welcome news for the Bank of England’s... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s Otkritie bailout highlights risk from previous credit boom The Russian central bank’s decision to bail out struggling Otkritie bank provides the clearest sign yet of the damaging legacy from the sharp run-up in credit seen up to 2014. That said, the strong... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen’s strong defence of regulation at odds with Trump Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s passionate defence of the post-crisis tightening of financial regulation in her Jackson Hole speech today isn’t going to go down particularly well at the White House. Donald... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Will other central banks follow Bank Indonesia? Despite the current subdued rates of inflation across most of Emerging Asia, we don’t expect many of the region’s central banks to copy Bank Indonesia, which yesterday surprised markets by cutting... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Turkey’s strong recovery won’t last Turkey’s economy enjoyed a strong first half of the year, but growth is close to peaking and we think that it will slow in 2018-19, and by more than most expect. What’s more, given the vulnerabilities... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Bank lending to remain weak The Reserve Bank of India cut its policy rate by 25bp earlier this month, and subsequently called upon commercial banks to pass on the cut to borrowers. But the move is likely to have a negligible... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will accelerating car credit cause a crash? Recent rapid growth in car finance has left the industry looking more vulnerable to a downturn. But this type of lending is a small proportion of total borrowing. And with car finance deals shifting... 21st August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul.) Total EM capital outflows remained pretty stable in July. Net portfolio inflows picked up a bit, though more recent figures suggest that this may have reversed in August. 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Remittance slowdown a big risk to South Asia A fall in remittances to Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka is a big concern for these economies. If sustained, it could cause growth to weaken and put their currencies under downward pressure. 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Credit conditions set to remain supportive Although the minutes of the Fed’s and ECB’s latest policy meetings are consistent with our view that their unconventional policy support will be scaled back in Q4 and early next year, respectively... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Recent rise unlikely to mark the start of a surge in spreads Credit spreads have risen as tensions between the US and North Korea have flared up. But the increase has been small and they are still low. We think that a downturn in the US economy is a more likely... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Strong bank earnings conceal gloomy outlook Official data published on Monday show that commercial banks’ non-performing loan (NPL) ratio held steady at 1.74% in Q2 and that their net profits grew almost 12% y/y, the fastest pace since 2014... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) New lending declined in July, masking an uptick in underlying credit growth. We doubt this will translate to a sustained pick-up, however, since efforts to slow the build-up of debt mean that market... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
