Canada Economics Update Tougher mortgage regulation to hit housing hard The final decision to forge ahead with proposals to tighten mortgage rules further will only make matters worse for the already faltering housing market. This will have a far greater impact on house... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Credit growth slowed slightly in the second quarter but remains very strong by past standards. However, this has yet to result in a marked increase in private sector indebtedness. 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Inflation & Credit (Sep.) Core inflation rose to a near six-year high last month and producer price inflation continued to rebound, consistent with resilient growth ahead of the Party Congress. But the credit data suggest that... 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q3) Mortgage credit availability rose in Q3, but banks appear to have retreated from the provision of riskier home loans. And credit availability to commercial property was broadly flat on the year. 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Making sense of Africa’s statistical muddle Sceptics are right to question the reliability of official economic statistics in Africa, but the problems unevenly distributed across the region. For Africa’s larger economies, we think that the... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s external vulnerabilities back under the microscope Turkey’s recent diplomatic spat with the US – and the subsequent sell-off in financial markets – has refocussed attention on the economy’s external vulnerabilities. We have two areas of concern: the... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Sep.) The small rise in China’s foreign exchange reserves last month is consistent with muted capital outflows but hints at active intervention by the People’s Bank to inject two-way volatility into the... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ’s JGB purchases to slow further The Bank of Japan’s purchases of JGBs have now fallen to around ¥60 trillion per annum and they are likely to be cut further to ¥40 trillion over the next couple of years. However, this shouldn’t have... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM dollar debt – a primer The decision by the Fed to begin the process of balance sheet reduction this month – coupled with the heavy hints that a December rate hike remains on the table – has led several clients to ask about... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Our recreated M3 measure shows broad money growth accelerating to a 12-month high of 4.6% in August, from 4.3%, although the Fed’s quantitative tightening will put modest downward pressure on the... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Monetary policy remaining tight despite RRR cut The People’s Bank gave its devotees a twinge of nostalgia on Saturday as it announced a cut to reserve requirements out of office hours and at the start of a national holiday in China. This was how... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of our forecasts Growth in Emerging Europe has generally surprised on the upside in recent quarters, which is consistent with the above-consensus forecasts we made at the start of this year. We expect further positive... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Aug.) August’s household borrowing figures provide another reason to think that consumer spending growth won’t slow too sharply ahead. But the figures will do little to assuage concerns about household debt... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q2.) The most interesting element of the National Accounts was the sweeping revisions to the data, including the implementation of the ONS’ annual methodological overhaul, which suggests households’... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi Arabia returns to the international bond market Saudi Arabia returned to the international bond market this month in order to plug its twin budget and current account shortfalls. A total of $12.5bn of dollar debt was issued, split into three... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Turning point? The encouraging signs about the health of the Australian economy have continued over the past month, with employment growth gathering pace and the outlook for business investment improving. (See Chart... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
