China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) Higher market rates are driving a slowdown in credit growth that is set to weigh on economic activity in coming quarters. Weaker incoming data should keep the PBOC from tightening policy any further. 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Is the rise in US high-yield credit spreads a worrying sign? 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will high levels of debt weigh on global growth? Although debt-to-GDP ratios in advanced economies remain high by historical standards, they are at least on sustainable trajectories. Accordingly, fiscal austerity and household deleveraging appear to... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Are the world’s banks back to normal? If “normal” means the under-regulated and over-leveraged state that they were in before the crisis, then that is the last thing we need the world’s banks to return to. Thankfully, however, that does... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) Although retail sales rose in September, the increase was not sufficient for the sector to match Q2’s performance in Q3. This suggests that total household spending was behind the slowdown in... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Senior Loan Officer Survey (Oct.) The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Office Survey (SLOS) paints a mixed picture, with banks loosening lending standards on business loans and residential mortgages, but tightening standards on some types of... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Bank lending still rising steadily Credit growth has continued to pick up gradually in the euro-zone and Japan, and more strongly in the UK. In the US, the slowdown in growth in lending to the private sector has eased recently. 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Jobs mandate to move the goalposts not change the game The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will leave interest rates at 1.75% at the policy meeting on Thursday 9th November and by adopting a more cautious tone in the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement it... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Questioning the case for higher interest rates We think the financial markets are right to pare back their expectations of how far interest rates will rise next year. Admittedly, we expect that after leaving rates at 1.5% at the meeting on Tuesday... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is London facing a Brexodus? Reports that the Bank of England is assuming 75,000 office-based would shift away from London following Brexit paints a gloomy picture for office markets. However, not only is London less dependent on... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Retail sector on the ropes Despite the sustained strengthening in the Australian labour market, retail sales have been unusually weak in recent months. Admittedly, some of this weakness can be explained by weak price pressures... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Scope for pick-up in growth as inflation falls It’s fair to say that there was a certain amount of relief following this week’s GDP figures, which showed that the economy re-gained a bit of pace in Q3. But this hasn’t alleviated concerns that a... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How risky is overseas lending? Overseas lending by Japanese banks has risen sharply in recent years and now almost matches domestic lending. The bulk of foreign lending is financed in yen which exposes lenders to a sizeable... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Euro-zone money and lending growth remained strong in September and point to a continued healthy pace of growth. But they remain consistent with only limited inflationary pressure, suggesting that the... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Initial thoughts on the recapitalisation package A large-scale recapitalisation plan announced yesterday by the government is the most significant measure yet to deal with India’s banking sector malaise. That said, the package will come at a fiscal... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Fiscal deficit target under pressure The rapid expansion of the central government’s deficit in the early stages of the fiscal year is a regular occurrence, as revenues tend to get ramped up in latter months. Nevertheless, there are... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
