Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) Euro-zone lending growth remained healthy in December, and with interest rates likely to rise only very slowly as the ECB normalises policy, bank lending looks set to continue supporting economic... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Would Japan benefit from higher interest rates? Some commentators have been arguing that the Bank of Japan should be raising interest rates now to support household incomes. However, it isn’t clear whether this would boost household spending, while... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Trade tensions simmer as China-US surplus widens China’s bilateral trade surplus with the US rose in 2017 to a record high of US$275bn according to Chinese data. President Trump, according to the White House, stressed his “disappointment” with this... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) The slowdown in broad credit growth that has been underway since mid-2016 continued last month. Policymakers may welcome this progress toward deleveraging for now. But we think the drag on economic... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Bank lending still going strong Monetary conditions should stay accommodative this year, even though the ECB has scaled back its asset purchases this month and the Fed will continue to gradually reduce its balance sheet. Bank... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) Mortgage credit availability edged up in Q4, while the supply of credit for commercial property held steady. But while conditions for households are expected to improve further in Q1, commercial... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The Fed’s quantitative tightening has so far had little impact on the monetary aggregates, but the effects of rising short-term interest rates are becoming more visible. Meanwhile, after slowing... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Decline in credit spreads not likely to last a lot longer 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update 2018 should be another good year for consumers We estimate that household spending growth in the world’s major economies picked up from 3.1% in 2016 to 3.7% in 2017. In 2018, it is likely to grow at a similarly decent pace to last year, as real... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Nov.) November’s household borrowing figures will help to assuage fears that the slowdown in the housing market is gathering pace. And with consumers’ appetite for unsecured loans remaining strong, this... 4th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Nov.) November’s public finances figures brought more good news on the current health of the public finances. And we think that stronger GDP growth will result in a more rapid improvement further ahead. 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack State election victories strengthen BJP’s hand The state election victories for Prime Minister Modi’s BJP in both Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh ensure that the ruling party remains firmly on track to secure a majority in the Rajya Sabha (upper... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4) Today’s Tankan survey showed that business conditions didn’t improve much further this quarter which suggests that growth is now slowing. Nonetheless, capacity and staff shortages continue to... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Decent start to festive period With real incomes under pressure from subdued nominal pay growth and rising inflation, the strong rise in retail sales volumes in November is encouraging. However, spending on the high street might... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Out of the woods? Five key questions about Greece The Greek crisis has abated and the Government may be able to exit its bailout next August as planned. But the exit will not be “clean” and the official creditors who still own the vast bulk of the... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) New lending jumped last month but this masks a further slowdown in underlying credit growth. Despite the official rhetoric on the need to deleverage, we think the drag on economic activity from this... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
