China Economics Update New PBOC chief a safe choice but his hands are tied After 15 years at the helm of the People’s Bank, Zhou Xiaochuan is passing the title of governor to his protégé Yi Gang, a technocrat with two decades of experience at the central bank. Yi has been a... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Household deleveraging likely to restrain growth The small income-driven decline in the household debt-to-income ratio in the fourth quarter of 2017 provides a glimmer of hope that the economy might be able to successfully grow its way out of debt... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Credit spreads likely to rise again before long Emerging market (EM) credit spreads have stabilised recently after a slight pick-up in early February on the back of the sell-off in global equity markets. But this may just be a temporary respite. In... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar: banking strains ease, but credit to stay weak Qatar’s banking sector has weathered the worst of the impact of the blockade. But tight external financing conditions and a need to deleverage mean that credit growth will provide less of a prop to... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update PNB scandal highlights need for governance reforms The fraud scandal engulfing Punjab National Bank, India’s second largest state-owned bank, is a stark reminder that recent measures to revive the banking sector, including the recapitalisation package... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) The amount of new loans issued by Chinese banks fell sharply last month. But this happens in February of almost every year. More important is that broader credit growth is now at multi-year lows. 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain and Oman: austerity to gather pace to cap debt Public debt-to-GDP ratios in Bahrain and Oman are on a worrying path and we expect the pace of austerity to be stepped up over the coming years to slow the rise in debt. However, that will come at the... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet has begun to gather pace but is still having next to no impact on the monetary aggregates, suggesting that the effect on the broader economy will also be small... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Debt worries building Kenya’s public debt load is not particularly large, but the recent run-up in debt is clearly not sustainable. Our core view is that the government will tighten policy and that the debt burden will... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update New Saudi bankruptcy law a step in the right direction Saudi Arabia’s new bankruptcy law, which was approved by King Salman last month, will make it easier to deal with the fallout from corporate failures and, through improving access to credit, support... 1st March 2018 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jan.) January’s household borrowing figures will help to assuage fears that the slowdown in the housing market is gathering pace. And consumers still appear confident enough to borrow to smooth their... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) & Money and Credit (Jan.) February’s manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector has lost some momentum in Q1. But the details of the survey were more encouraging, and there is little sign in the latest money and credit figures... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Euro-zone lending growth made a strong start to the year. And with interest rates likely to rise only slowly as the ECB normalises policy, bank lending looks set to continue supporting economic growth... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household spending losing momentum There are some tentative signs that the past tightening in mortgage rules and increase in interest rates are beginning to have an impact beyond housing by negatively impacting household spending too... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Import duty hikes unlikely to aid local manufacturing Recent hikes to import duties on various goods appear to be an attempt by Prime Minister Modi and the BJP to shore up popular support ahead of a clutch of state elections this year, and the general... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
