US Economics Update

Credit conditions normalising

The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey suggests that banks have put last year’s SVB regional bank crisis firmly behind them and, with long-term interest rates markedly lower than the...

5th February 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Markets Outlook

Markets are not braced for how far inflation will fall

Our forecast that CPI inflation will fall below 1.0% later this year suggests that Bank Rate will be cut from 5.25% now to 3.00% rather than the low of 3.50-3.75% priced into the market, 10-year gilt...

30th January 2024 · 10 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Credit (Dec. 2023)

December’s money and credit figures suggest the transition from interest rates being a drag on activity to being a boost is beginning. This lends some support to our view that the economic recovery...

30th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Regulatory changes won’t affect house price outlook

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand launched a consultation on changes to its macroprudential framework last week. In our view, the proposed tweaks are unlikely to have a meaningful impact on the housing...

30th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Money supply bottoming out but lending to stay weak

Data released this morning suggest that the collapse in the euro-zone’s money supply might be over. But we expect money and lending growth to remain fairly weak.

26th January 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Update

PBOC still only easing with caution

The People’s Bank’s policy announcements today will provide only a small boost for China’s economy. Meaningful improvements in household or corporate borrowing would require substantial rate cuts or a...

24th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Case for tighter macroprudential measures is weak

While Australian households are as indebted as ever and mortgage payments have hit fresh record-highs, lending standards continue to be sound, loan defaults remain subdued and banks are well...

23rd January 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Inflation Watch

Will the last mile be the hardest?

The easiest wins in the disinflation battle are behind us now that base effects from the previous surge in energy prices have run their course. Indeed, we expect energy effects to lift inflation in...

18th January 2024 · 16 mins read

UK Economics Update

Drag on economic growth from credit starting to fade

The Bank of England’s Q4 Credit Conditions Survey suggests the worst of the drag on economic growth from higher interest rates is fading. That suggests an economic recovery will begin later this year.

18th January 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 2023)

The latest Credit Conditions Survey showed a rise in the availability of mortgage credit in Q4 as financial market interest rates fell, but demand for mortgages slipped as mortgage rates took time to...

18th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Revisiting Dubai’s GRE debts

We have long highlighted the risk in Dubai’s corporate sector and the large debts that government-related entities (GREs) have accrued. This Update provides our latest estimates of these debts. The...

16th January 2024 · 6 mins read

China Rapid Response

Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.)

The rebound in broad credit growth remained on track thanks to a step up in government borrowing. But growth in bank loans undershot expectations, dropping to its lowest level in over two decades...

12th January 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Update

Loan defaults unlikely to hinder economic recovery

The lagged effects of the weak economy and high interest rates may mean that loan default rates rise in the coming months. But the prospect of interest rate cuts later this year will mean they won’t...

10th January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Economics Update

Is the worst behind us for business bankruptcies?

The surge in Chapter 11 business bankruptcy filings last quarter is not as bad as it looks, as many of them related to the WeWork failure. Excluding those, bankruptcies trended lower at the end of...

10th January 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Investors price in rate cuts, PBOC taps lending scheme

In contrast to elsewhere, bond yields in China continued to drop this week as investors increasingly come around to our view that further cuts to policy rates and reserve requirements are imminent...

5th January 2024 · 7 mins read