India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (Nov. 2023)

Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy continues to show resilience this year and annual GDP growth is likely to come in...

23rd November 2023 · 1 min read

US Economics Weekly

Post SVB bank lending holding up well

The SVB crisis back in mid-March sparked fears of a credit crunch, particularly among regional banks who are the principal source of funding for commercial real estate. Post-SVB, while the Fed’s...

22nd November 2023 · 6 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Trade deficit balloons, RBI cracks the whip

The goods trade deficit soared to a record high in October and, though it is likely to moderate over the coming months, the overall current account deficit will probably come in a bit wider than we...

17th November 2023 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia: recession nearing an end

The latest Saudi GDP data paint a downbeat picture in which the recession has deepened amid oil output cuts. But the good news is that the recession looks to be coming to an end. And we think the...

15th November 2023 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Update

Credit data point to recessions in DMs

Bank lending data from the major advanced economies confirmed that lending was very subdued in September and the latest bank lending surveys show that banks have since tightened their lending criteria...

9th November 2023 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

European banks weathering CRE crash

Despite the steepest crash in commercial property values on record, the credit risk and asset quality of European banks’ commercial real estate lending is holding up well. Further declines in values...

8th November 2023 · 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM bank resilience improves, but risks continue to lurk

Higher profitability has helped to boost EM banks’ financial positions over the past year and reduced the tail of weak banks that might struggle to cope with rising loan losses on their balance sheets...

7th November 2023 · 4 mins read

US Economics Update

Credit conditions ease following post-SVB squeeze

The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey suggests that, while they remain tight, credit conditions have eased a little since the run of regional bank failures earlier this year prompted the...

6th November 2023 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Doth the Old Lady protest too much on rate cuts?

The surge in business insolvencies and slump in M4 money growth suggest that the Bank of England maybe protesting too much when it stressed this week that interest rate cuts are far away. But the Bank...

3rd November 2023 · 8 mins read

China Economics Weekly

The renminbi’s rise in China’s global transactions

For the first time, over half of China’s global transactions are being settled in renminbi. Most of this renminbi isn’t travelling far – the bulk of settlement is being driven by financial flows with...

3rd November 2023 · 7 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Four things of note on the SNB this week

The SNB has been uncharacteristically active this week, making a string of announcements about monetary policy, its balance sheet, minimum reserve requirement and lessons from the Credit Suisse...

2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read

China Economics Update

Five takeaways from the Financial Work Conference

China’s leadership has outlined its wish list for financial sector development. It wants stricter oversight of financial institutions to ensure they serve the interests of the Party and country. This...

1st November 2023 · 5 mins read

UK Markets Outlook

Higher for longer narrative has gone too far

While we think sticky core inflation will mean that the Bank of England keeps interest rates at their peak of 5.25% until late in 2024, we think the markets have gone too far in concluding that rates...

30th October 2023 · 11 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to commercial property (Sep. 23)

Net lending to property totaled £132mn in September, the lowest amount since February. But looking through the monthly volatility, on a 3-month basis lending has totaled more than £1.5bn in every...

30th October 2023 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Credit (Sep. 2023)

The further easing in bank lending in September will continue to weigh on activity, particularly in the housing market. This is consistent with our view that a mild recession may already be underway...

30th October 2023 · 4 mins read