Japan Economics Weekly How big a threat are rising hedging costs for banks? An increase in hedging costs has undermined the appeal of investing in US$ bonds for Japanese investors. This won’t affect the profitability of banks much as their holdings of foreign bonds are small... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly APRA, the Royal Commission and housing We suspect that a tightening in lending standards as a result of the Royal Commission into banking misconduct will more than offset any further relaxation in APRA’s lending restrictions to leave... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Economy gathering momentum Indian GDP growth hit a five-quarter high in Q4 2017, and various indicators suggest that the economy strengthened further in the first quarter of 2018. Industrial production growth last quarter may... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we worry about the rise in EM public debt? The IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor has put the rise in EM public debt over the past decade back under the spotlight. While debt ratios have increased across most of the emerging world, major... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update RRR cut to support lending to small firms Today required reserve ratio (RRR) cut doesn’t constitute broad monetary easing. But it does signal that – despite the recent strength of the official data – policymakers are starting to balance... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Mar.) There was a seasonal pick-up in new lending last month but underlying growth in broad credit continued to slow and is now at its lowest rate in over a decade. Our China Activity Proxy suggests that... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q1) The Bank of England’s survey of lenders suggests that the recent weakness in mortgage lending has been driven by falling demand for credit. But the survey also points to a sharp fall in loan approval... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) Bank lending has continued to slow in recent months. However, banks’ willingness to provide credit has rarely been higher, and broader measures of credit that also include corporate bonds show that... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Money growth slowdown is not a concern Growth of almost all monetary aggregates slowed in major advanced economies in February, but we are not worried for three reasons. First, money growth has only slowed a bit. Second, changes in money... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q1) Today’s Tankan survey suggests that growth slowed last quarter. Nonetheless, staff shortages have continued to intensify and price pressures are strengthening. 2nd April 2018 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Tougher times may lie ahead for the IT sector Equities have had a tough time over the past month, with the information technology (IT) sector in the US hit particularly hard since mid-March. The poor performance of the IT sector cannot be pinned... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Q4 Quarterly National Accounts & Money and Credit Q4’s Quarterly National Accounts confirmed that growth in 2017 was broadly unchanged from 2016, and painted a more balanced growth picture for the final quarter. Meanwhile, the latest money and credit... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The gradual contraction of the Fed’s balance sheet is now starting to weigh on the monetary aggregates. Nonetheless, there are good reasons to expect bank lending growth to rebound soon. 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will EM credit spreads continue to rise? The spreads of emerging market (EM) sovereign dollar bonds have been edging up since their lows a couple of months ago, and we think that they have further to rise over the next two years. 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Africa: Debt positions fragile in face of economic shocks Africa’s public debt problems are currently concentrated in Mozambique, Angola, Ghana, Nigeria, & Zambia. Elsewhere, however, it would only take a small shock to prompt a crisis (Kenya & South Africa... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) Japanese households and firms now both receive more in interest income than they pay out on their debt. That is making life difficult for banks. The main factor keeping them afloat is their sizeable... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
