US Economics Update Rising rates beginning to squeeze household finances Households’ balance sheets are still in good shape, with debt burdens stabilising well below their pre-crisis levels and delinquencies low. However, the further rise in newly delinquent credit card... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Maduro 2.0: messy debt default on the cards The victory for Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela’s presidential election paves the way for an escalation of US sanctions – possibly on the oil sector – and a messy sovereign debt default and restructuring... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Corporate sector well placed to cope with higher rates Higher market interest rates will undoubtedly act as a drag on household spending and business investment, offsetting some of the temporary boost from fiscal stimulus. We expect that will eventually... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Where to look for tighter credit conditions Credit conditions in Australia will surely tighten further as a result of the Royal Commission investigation into misconduct in the financial sector, but there is a huge amount of uncertainty about... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy's banks are on the mend, albeit slowly With attention in Italy focused on politics, some significant improvements in the banking sector have gone under the radar. That said, the banks are still a long way from a full recovery. 14th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Purchases of government bonds by the Bank of Japan have stabilised over the past six months. But the rate at which its holdings are growing has continued to slow as its bonds are now maturing at a... 14th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Banks continue to relax lending standards In March, broad money growth slowed a bit in the euro-zone, UK and Japan. Indeed, in the euro-zone it dropped to its slowest rate since the ECB started its Asset Purchase Programme in early 2015... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) The slowdown in broad credit growth that has been underway since mid-2016 moderated last month but a turnaround is unlikely for some time yet, meaning that weaker lending will remain a headwind to... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Poloz far too sanguine on debt build-up Earlier this week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz gave a remarkably sanguine speech on the build-up in household debt. He concluded that, although record-high debt represented a risk and means... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia: A closer look at public debt worries We’ve long argued that Zambia’s debt position is very fragile. Adverse commodity price moves, for instance, could quickly push it into debt distress. If recent allegations that officials have... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Slowdown in bank lending no cause for concern The continued slowdown in bank lending seems to vindicate the Bank of Japan’s concerns that low policy rates are undermining financial intermediation. But broader measures of credit availability... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet continued to weigh on the narrow monetary aggregates in March, but this is unlikely to prove a major drag on the economy. Our measure of M3 shows that broad... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Mar.) Unsecured lending to households ground to a halt in March, raising concerns of a sharp pull-back in consumer spending growth. But other indicators suggest that the slowdown in lending will prove... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Manuf. PMI (Apr.) & Money and Credit Statistics (Mar.) The latest Markit/CIPS Manufacturing Survey suggested that the sector struggled to re-gain much momentum at the start of Q2. Meanwhile, the Bank of England’s Money and Credit figures revealed a... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Public debt fears concentrated in smaller frontiers Public debt positions across the emerging world have come under scrutiny recently and the risks appear to be concentrated in frontier markets. In aggregate, the debt-to-GDP ratio of frontier... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) March’s euro-zone money and lending data add to the evidence that economic growth has peaked. But with households’ and firms’ demand for loans still strong, and ECB policy set to remain accommodative... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
