UK Economics Chart Pack Spending recovery now underway The rebound in retail sales volumes so far in Q2 has provided us with some encouragement that consumer spending growth has regained some pace after the weak start to the year. Meanwhile, wage growth... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How worrying is the slowdown in money growth? The recent slowdown in money growth could be taken as evidence that economic growth will weaken further. However, it is not unheard of for economic growth to hold up well even when money growth is... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Is a financial crisis looming? The most likely consequence of the rapid build-up of household debt over the past decade is a number of years of softer GDP growth and lower interest rates than widely expected. But the risk of a more... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Despite the recent sell-off in peripheral European bond markets, we still expect the Fed to raise rates again tomorrow and the ECB to announce at its meeting on Thursday its plans to bring its asset... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) The value of new loans issued by Chinese banks edged down last month. But this often happens in May. More importantly, broad credit growth slowed further and is now the weakest in over a decade. 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Growth in the narrow monetary aggregates slowed further in April, but there is still little to suggest that this is having much of an impact on the wider economy. Our measure of M3 growth has held up... 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: IMF deal imposes ambitious fiscal targets Confirmation that Argentina has reached an agreement with the IMF over a financing package will help to restore investor confidence and provide a much-needed anchor for the country’s necessary... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Household balance sheets still in decent shape Although there are early signs that the finances of US households are coming under a bit of pressure as interest rates rise, the near-term outlook for household consumption in advanced economies... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Spain can cope without Rajoy but Italian politics still a worry In any other week, the imposition of tariffs on the EU by the US would have taken centre stage. But amid the political and market turmoil in Italy and the downfall of Spain’s government, this was no... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ getting more concerned about financial stability The Bank of Japan seems to be getting more concerned about the impact of low policy rates on financial stability. However, the financial system is neither unwilling to provide credit nor is credit... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How could Italy’s problems affect Emerging Europe? Recent developments in Italy do not pose an immediate threat to economies in Emerging Europe but a significant escalation in the crisis would cause problems for countries in the region, particularly... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Banks outside the euro-zone not too exposed to Italy The direct exposure to Italy of banks located outside the euro-zone is small compared to that of their peers based in other euro-zone countries. This offers some reassurance that any fallout from... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Household credit growth slows sharply Rising interest rates and the recent tightening of mortgage lending standards are now having a marked impact on mortgage lending, with the three-month-on-three-month annualised growth rate of mortgage... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bankruptcy code finding its feet After a few teething problems in its early stages, India’s new bankruptcy code is now making a significant difference to the speed at which bankruptcy cases are resolved and the amount that creditors... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Royal Commission presents a risk to growth While there is still a lot of uncertainty, it seems likely that the Royal Commission into misconduct in the financial sector will lead to a tightening in credit conditions in Australia. A notable... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack BJP still in strong position despite Karnataka setback The BJP’s failure to form a coalition despite winning by far the most seats in the Karnataka state election is a setback for the ruling national party, with the main opposition Congress and the local... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
