Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey on the brink Turkey seems to have been on the brink of a crisis several times this decade, only for the central bank to do just enough to steady the ship. But there are reasons to think that emergency interest... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana Bank rescue, Mozambique debt talks The rescue of five small failing banks in Ghana should help to improve the (fragile) health of the sector and, in time, should help to support a recovery in credit growth. Elsewhere, the resumption of... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising interest rates not a major drag on credit demand Rising interest rates appear to be weighing on mortgage demand but, for now at least, there are few signs of a sharp slowdown in consumer and business lending on the horizon. 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor EM corporate credit spreads appear unsustainably low Aside from a brief drop in July, emerging market (EM) credit spreads have generally been rising in recent months and are well above their January troughs. Nonetheless, corporate credit spreads in... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A fresh look at Turkey’s banking sector risks The plunge in the lira and rise in borrowing costs is likely to push the Turkish economy into a technical recession in the second half of this year. But the vulnerabilities that have built up in the... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jun.) June’s rise in mortgage approvals is too small to suggest that a revival in mortgage lending is underway. Meanwhile, the unsecured borrowing figures provide another reason to think that consumer... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank Lending Survey bodes well for growth The ECB’s Q2 Bank Lending Survey adds to the evidence that the euro-zone economy will continue to perform well. And there is little sign that the uncertainty about the Italian Government’s policies... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The 10-year outlook for EM consumer spending EM consumer spending growth looks set to be around two percentage points slower over the next decade compared with the previous one. Much of the slowdown will be due to Emerging Asia, especially China... 23rd July 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack BJP defeats no-confidence vote Prime Minister Modi’s BJP comfortably defeated the vote of no-confidence initiated by opposition parties on Friday. The result isn’t a major surprise given that the BJP holds a majority in the Lok... 23rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How much longer can QQE remain in place? The BoJ has been able to drastically slow the pace of its acquisition of Japanese Government Bonds since it adopted a 0% yield target, which should quells doubts about the policy’s long-run viability... 23rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Regional recovery gathering steam The raft of quarterly GDP data released over the past month confirmed that the MENA region rebounded at the start of this year and more timely figures suggest that the recovery is gathering momentum... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Corporate defaults surge Corporate bond defaults in China have jumped recently, adding to worries about the economic outlook. July is on track to more than double the previous monthly record for the scale of onshore bonds... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed’s balance sheet plans may need to change The Fed’s preference is to stick to the balance sheet normalisation plan it drew up last year, but we think a sharp economic slowdown will prompt the Fed to halt its balance sheet run-off in 2020. In... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM financial vulnerabilities look contained The currency crises that rocked Argentina and Turkey in May and June raised fears that they would presage similar problems in other EMs. The fact that these then failed to materialise once again... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Case for policy easing continuing to build The release of disappointing credit data a month ago catalysed a deterioration in sentiment about China’s economy. Today’s even weaker figures will only add to those concerns, with the early signs... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.) A further slowdown in lending in June adds downside risks to economic growth and is likely to trigger a policy response. 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
