Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Our new forecasts and the RBA’s trade war fears After revamping all our forecasts, we have concluded that the RBA and the RBNZ probably won’t raise interest rates until late in 2020 and late in 2021 respectively. That explains why we now expect the... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Bank merger another step in right direction The government’s announcement this week that it will merge three state-run banks is another step in the right direction towards fixing the beleaguered banking system, following on from the... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What do EM car sales tell us? The latest EM auto sales figures echo survey data and financial indicators in suggesting that economic disruption following recent market turbulence has so far been contained to Turkey and Argentina... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Do financial markets pose a risk to the global economy? Ten years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there are concerns that the financial markets will bring the global economy to its knees again. We do not think, however, that they will be a major... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Diaspora to the rescue? The continued weakness of the rupee has triggered speculation this week that policymakers are about to adopt special measures to shore up the currency. One possibility is the reintroduction of a... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Looking for the next Lehman’s means missing new risks Ten years after the collapse of Lehman’s, the risk of something similar occurring again in the near future appears to be low. But looking for the next Lehman’s misses the point – crises on the scale... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Can corporates cope with higher interest rates? The risk that higher interest rates will trigger widespread corporate defaults and cause the next global downturn is low, not least because business finances are generally in good shape. But as... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) Overall credit growth in China stabilised in August but further policy easing will be needed to prevent it from slipping again in the coming months. 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Is Lebanon lurching towards a crisis? Lebanon’s recent political deadlock has reignited fears over the country’s weak balance sheets. A fresh escalation of tensions with the Gulf is still a major threat and, as we’ve warned before, this... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Labour gaining the upper hand Summer bonuses rose the most since 1991 this year. That is partly a reflection of the surge in corporate profits in recent years. But workers are earning more than their fair share of the pie. Labour... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus High debt burdens mean rate hikes will hit hard The large build-up in private sector debt over the last decade means that the Canadian economy is far more sensitive to interest rate rises than in the past. This increases the likelihood that the... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack The resilience of the US stock market is unlikely to last Large-cap equities have generally continued to make headway in the US since the end of July, despite the fact that they have fallen in much of the rest of the developed world. Historically, equities... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA glosses over weaker economic news The upbeat tone of the comments by the Reserve Bank of Australia after it left interest rates at the record low of 1.5% for the 25th month today is starting to grate more obviously with the incoming... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM corporate credit spreads have a lot further to rise Despite rising since January, emerging market (EM) corporate credit spreads remain very tight by past standards and relative to those of their counterparts elsewhere in the world. We think that this... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Households holding up well Australian households have been more resilient to low income growth and falling house prices than we expected. After rising by just 0.3% q/q in the first quarter, the solid rises in retail sales in... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turkey in crisis Turkey plunged into a full-blown currency crisis this month following the imposition of US sanctions and an absence of (or refusal to pursue) an orthodox policy response. Inflation, which was already... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
